Hi all

Haven't been involved in the forum for a while happy new year to you all.

Heres something i have been playing with for a while it has made level stakes profit.

Run of outs can be long but the good odds do help. recently has had a longish run of outs however Rockhampton race 1 19/1/10 struck a $76 winner. General winners are between $10 and $25 with the odd greater odds.

Ok what are the rules:
Barrier one after scratchings
between $10 and $40
any track
No heavy tracks

Two minutes before the jump its a bet if between these odds. The above example showed $39 before the jump so it was a bet and then jumped. This can go the other way of course but generally they blow.

This im sure can be refined to some tracks better than others or staking plan etc but overall still wins. dont forget this is using unitab odds so other tabs or betfair could be better.

As i said with some of you folk databases etc you can improve it for yourselves.

cheers
ubetido

__________________
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!

Hi all

Recent results
18th Jan Stawell R1 number 1 won paid $9.40 came in from $11
19th Jan Rockhampton R1 number 6 won paid $76.30 out from $39
20th Jan Ipswich R6 number 6 won paid $14.30
21st no wins in that price range
22nd no wins in that price range

Cheers
Ubetido

__________________
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!

Hi ,

With all due respect to your tests, every time I see someone branding longshots around , the vital piece of info that is alsways missing is the total number of selections that was taken in order to achive those collects.

I am in no way beliteling your efforts, I know how frustrating longshots are first hand, its just my pet peeve that I see the prices thrown around like they come up every second race when infact there are possibilities for 100 runs of out or longer. Which is something that can decimate the constitution of even the most disciplined player.

If you realy want to paint a complete picture , post the losing bets as well. I would say that with the prices collected over the days you show , you would be well infront in the sample !

I wish you well and all the persistance required.

Kind regards,

Michal

Hi Michal

Thanks for your reply and yes i agree with you that figures can be twisted or sampled in a way that makes look ok.

As you can appreciate there are many races where there are no bets either but yes long runs of outs of 50 or more is not uncommon.

I applied the same principles to barriers 2 and 3 whilst the last few days there have been a number of longshot winners from these two barriers long term the results were not as good.

Might be forum jinx..lol

As i said it has been a play around but barrier 1 did show a profit level stakes overall.

To perhaps put things i perspective
Barrier 1 had a strike rate of 7.4% average return was $17.
Barrier 2 was a 4.3% strike rate with a average $19 return
Barrier 3 was a 4% strike rate with an average of $18 return
In the price ranges i indicated
All other price ranges were losers both shorter price and longer priced at two minutes to the jump.

Would i be silly enough to think that it could be this simple of course not but for a bit of fun it could be worse for a no brainer long shot selection process.


Cheers
Ubetido

__________________
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!

G'day ubetido,
Realistically which punter can withstand a losing run of 50......?
Most would have driven to The Gap by then mate!
Cheers.

Hi there

Yes i agree if a person is trying to make a living from the punt or is a part time professional.

At the type of odds we are talking about it doesnt take much to square the ledger.

Anyway i really don't want to be carved up over this it was my observation over quite a considerable period of time.

Just take note even in trifectas and quads that this barrier bobs up at nice odds either win or placings

Cheers
ubetido

__________________
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!