Tony
Rough figures for the last 10 Saturdays for Syd & Melb. Total races 171, winners < PP 113 or 66%, or 2 out of 3.
Total runners 1969, winners 171, = 8.7%.
Runners where open price was < PP 982, winners 113, = 11.5%, remember a few % here & there will add up over time. More interesting is having $1 win on every runner (QLD TAB) would lose $350 or 18%, as you would expect. $1 on those that opened < PP would lose only $109 or 11%. Again a few % better off but much better $$ wise. Losing 11% is doing a lot better than most of us in the tipping comp! My opinion is that this is a reasonable way to get rid of short priced fancies.

Thanks Mark. Is it possible its just that the horses who are in the price range whence the majority of winners come are consistently quoted over the odds by the newspaper markets? It is a very common experience on reading these odds to think , "If only, in your dreams etc."
Would need to compare horses in the PP market line by line eg see how all PP 5/2 chances fare after opening above and below this quote etc.
Still, interesting that it acted as an effective filter on Testa's bets above, albeit on this very small sample.

You did not hear this from me, but I have it on very good authority that PP prices are worked out at The Rating Bureau (Marcel Plante) and handed to the various outlets, and I am also told that the actual paper prices are NOT the originals as supplied. If
Sports editors do not like the original figures they are changed. Any forum member with the GTS program should be able to vouch for this.

Cheers.

The prices in the weekend Australian are the same as the Courier Mail, obviously the same owners.
I know it's only a small sample, the last 11 weeks, but favourites (paper) that opened the same or > PP, 113 bets, showed a loss of 13.6 units (12%) while those that opened shorter, 85 bets, profited by 2.7 units (3%). This is on QLD TAB div's & flat stakes. Betting with the bookies would have been a larger profit. Yesterday, 14 of 16 opened shorter than PP, backing every runner lost 65 units or 36%, backing only those that opened shorter made 14 units or 15%. I have incorporated this fact into what I do & yesterday alone my increase in POT was 12% on what I would have made.
:grin: