My earlier post above made the point that weight changes must be considered in the context of the class of opposition a horse is racing against.

Stats show that horses rising in weight win more than horses falling in weight, but that doesn't mean you should treat a weight increase as a positive or negative factor in your handicapping.

Weight changes up or down offer no value from a handicapping point of view without consideration of class, or for that matter other factors like fitness, distance etc. (as EI pointed out in his post).

I have spent quite some time researching and writing about various racing topics and following are the outcomes of my own previous analysis and thoughts on these issues which I am happy to share and invite your comments on:

INTRO
======
I examined weight carried changes for runners in three categories:

* -1kg to +1kg on last start i.e. much the same weight.
* 1.5kg and greater increase
* -1.5kg and greater decrease

Of course there are multiple groupings one could use but to demonstrate the principles of weight and class these three groupings are more than suitable.

Along with weight increases, changes in class from the previous race were considered:

* Much easier class
* Moderately easier class
* Much the same class
* Moderately harder class
* Much harder class

These judgements were based on grouping of the class values assigned to each race in the database I use for my racing activities. This database covers every single TAB meeting held in Australia but as in my previous post, the data used for this work was all Metro races in NSW, QLD, VIC and SA over 3 years.

WEIGHT CHANGE STATISTICS
==========================

Overall stats for weight change in the groupings used are:

* -1.5kg's or more = 7.6% SR and -23.1% POT
* -1 to +1 kg's = 8.7% SR and -17.9% POT
* +1.5kg's or more = 12% SR and -20.6% POT

As statistics show, horses rising in weight win more than horses falling in weight. However the significance of weight change doesn't become meaningful until we consider class change as well.

HORSES FALLING IN WEIGHT 1.5kg's or Greater
===========================================

Following are stats for these horses according to their class change:

* Much easier class: 9.7%SR and -10.7% POT
* Mod easier class: 9%SR and -18.9% POT
* Much same class: 8.1%SR and -24.9% POT
* Mod harder class: 7.8%SR and -25.3% POT
* Much harder class: 6.6%SR and -23.5% POT

Overall: 7.6% strike and -23% POT

Interesting?

HORSES RISING IN WEIGHT 1.5kg or Greater
========================================

Following are stats for these horses according to their class change:

* Much easier class: 13.5%SR and -16.7% POT
* Mod easier class: 12%SR and -23.5% POT
* Much same class: 11%SR and -13.8% POT
* Mod harder class: 8.1%SR and -25.1% POT
* Much harder class: 4.7%SR and -58.9% POT

Overall: 12% SR and -20.6% POT

DISCUSSION
============

Remember that overall it is supposedly a positive factor that a horse is rising in weight and a negative one that a horse is dropping in weight.

Excluding profit for the minute, weight droppers only have a 7.6% strike rate, yet weight risers have a 12% strike rate.

But weight risers racing in moderately harder class only have a 8.1% strike rate and a shocking 4.7% strike rate when racing in much harder class. How then can a weight rise by itself be a positive factor?

Weight droppers who are going to race in moderatelly easier class have a 9% strike rate and if in much easier class a 9.7% strike rate, better than certain horses rising in weight. Again, how can a weight change by itself be considered a positive or negative factor?

HORSES WITH MUCH THE SAME WEIGHT -1kg to +1kg's
================================================== ==

Following are stats for these horses according to their class change:

* Much easier class: 11%SR and -13.7% POT
* Mod easier class: 10%SR and -22% POT
* Much same class: 9.5%SR and -23.5% POT
* Mod harder class: 8.4%SR and -21% POT
* Much harder class: 6.5%SR and -17.9% POT


SUMMARY
=========
A quick glance at these figures shows that we can make no conlusions about weight change that have any valid meaning to our work as form analysts and punters. Irrespective of weight, horse going up in class have a significantly inferior record.

Some people claim that rising in weight is meant to be a positive factor yet the worst profit figures from this analysis come from horses rising in weight who are racing in moderately harder or much harder class. Quite ironically the next worst comes from horses who are falling in weight that are racing in harder class.

This leads me to believe that the market "underestimates the importance of class" and therefore overestimates the winning chance of horses racing in harder class. Also implied is an overestimation of the impact of weight, particularly decreases in weight when a horse is rising in class.

While simple statistics by themselves cannot offer us any winning advantage, there is no doubt that as an analysis principle, CLASS is KING. As Pitsburgh Phil said, "show me the man who can class horses correctly, and I will show you the man who can make all the moeny he wants."

I advise anyone looking to build a reliable and successful form analysis process to focus on class as the primary element.

Some of my views on class were featured in Neils latest edition of Punt to Win, if you haven't already you can read more at:
http://www.propun.com.au/betting_advice.html

Needless to say I focus on class myself and determine it primarily through speed and pace, which with the assistance of good technology and racing intelligence offers me a legitimate and tremendous winning advantage.

Please feel free to pass on your thoughts and comments. Discussing topics like this where we can all learn something from each other is what forums should be about.

Very good and thorough research osulldj.
It brings home something I have used and considered very important over the years.

Ranking in order of priority

1. Fitness 45%
2. Class 45%
3. Weight 6%
4. Barrier 4%

In other words a fit class horse can usually carry the weight and overcome a bad barrier given that you have a reasonable jockey on board.

A fit horse of lower class will usually beat an unfit horse of higher class.

(By fit - I mean performing to it's best and medically sound. There are class horses racing prone to sore backs, shin-soreness etc. They are race fit but not medically sound).

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-29 13:48 ]

Once again quality research presented in a most professional manner by all.

I don't mean to be pedantic but the notion of 'Class' got a thorough going over.

Correct me please, but is it not the fact that modern handicappers have relegated 'Class' secondary to the notion of 'Field Stength'. A cursory glance at the Wizard reveals the two are not the same thing.

Indeed, in 'Picking Winners' Part 8, Malcolm Knowles states, "The Field Strength provides an alternative and more accurate way of looking at CLASS change. A change in race class, per se, DOES NOT not give any indication of the difficulty posed. Previous wisdom assumed that a runner going up in class automatically faced a harder task. .....it is not the change in CLASS that needs to be considered, it is the change in RACE QUALITY that needs to be considered."

Thats right Dr., we can no longer assume that a runner going up or down in class name is facing easier or more harder opposition.

The class changes quoted in my research are based on class or if you like to call them the "race quality" / "field strength" values in the database I use for my racing activities. These values are calculated by examination of the actual starters in each race and there overall record, weighted towards recent performances. So irrespective of the class name of the race the class values and therefore class changes I refer to in the analysis presented are based on the changes in quality of opposition a horse has faced from one run to the next....not the class name.

Thanks for the clarification osulldj.

Continue to enjoy your weekly emails thankyou.

Regarding Class and Field Strength:

Absolutely right.

If a horse is engaged in a race with equal class horses it loses all class advantage and you must find other selection criteria.

The advantage is when YOU assess a horse to have a class advantage even though it's form "on paper" is not the best. If you can find horses whose runs are better than what they appear AND have a class advantage, usually you are able to achieve over it's true odds and therein lies the value.

__________________
Treat your selection and staking methods not with optimism, nor with pessimism, but with realism.

if we are to take these ideas to their ultimate conclusion - i.e. weight is essentially irrelevent, class is irrelevent and we should largely consider the strength of the field then I believe we would find that even that is a very difficult thing to accurately detail.
Perhaps such assessment would be, or should be, most accurate in those more isolated areas where the horses are running at the same track each week, under the same conditions, and against each other. Like at Rockhampton or Port Lincoln etc..

The other obvious factor that renders all other factors irrelevent is a horse with exceptional results, but there arent too many of them around.

It is an interesting topic though - and is consistent with my belief that you should seriously head in the opposite direction to that which excites the general racing public.

finally, I personally find the class system used for horse racing very baffling and inconsistent.

The answer would obviously be to award points to every runner in every race to build your own class system - but that would be a hell of a job.
Even if you set out to try to create such a system for one track where the runners met regularly I think it would be hell to devise - perhaps it would be an interesting excercise to embark on collectively.
Pick one track, with races once a week or once a fortnight where the runners are usually the same and try to build a classification system that pinpoints the better horses accurately.

any takers????

see ya
Every Topic

A few extra kilos only matters if there is little between the major chances and you can't split them, other than by weight.

Horses dropping in weight have a weak record because they are rising in class or out of form. Unless they are improving horses capable of the step up, don't back them based on a weight drop.