i appreciate the comment two bets. thank you we are really getting into it haha

i wanna return a profit... otherwise i would be just sitting in a tab picking numbers for no reason haha

im just thinking if i had some quality filters in place my expected S/R could be higher than 32%, so expected number of outs would be lowered.

yes the numbers do get big quick but i also understand that its not going to be a get rich quick scheme... i could start with a smaller bank and let it build up over time and adjust the bets accordingly...

by following this it is possible to achieve the goal??
over a period of time? statistically?

winner winner chicken dinner!

14.3 WIN % Party and Bryzz (taken from 100,s of thousands of races ) by Malcolm Knowles research.
"Form Figure Walkabout" a Inracing publication.

Cheers

Thanks darky can u please clarify is that all races???

Winner winner chicken dinner!

Bryzz the Complete picture on Pre post Favs can be bought from Inracing.
Highly recommended if your thinking of betting in that area.
"Favs - from false to beaten.A complete review"

Cheers
darky

darky you have me beat there 14.3 win% ? you'd get better than that with a dart?

BRYZ55, Hey I'm not knocking (really) and yes of course if you get the right set of filters to push your idea into profit ,no matter how small thats the way to go.

But I hope you've got the patience of a saint as the only way is level stakes talking long term there.

The only variation from this is say 1% of the available bank never reducing, so say you have $5000 available (or at least what you are prepared to risk) so your bets are $50, now say you achieve 5% on T/O, after you have turned over the entire bank i.e. 100 bets you have won (hopefully) $250, (not accounting for the slight increase )how does that sound?

Cos, believe me many many professional are working to figures like that and less. eg a roulette wheel works on about 2% so I'm told, never been daft enough to contribute there!

As far as the sequence is concerned, yes of course the S/R (i.e. hitting a winner in 6) is very high, but many times you will win 1 unit or you could even lose if your nag is under 1/1, but just 1 losing sequence of 6 puts you 63 units behind, I wish you well but please digest what I've written b4 you test with real money. maybe someone here can tell you how many times you will hit a losing run of 6 ,I've lost the formula.

Yes party but with filters and some better priced favs winning sometimes pre post turn out not to be the eventual fav...

And betfair or best tote... Possibly a longer sequence of staking the profit may turn out a bit better.

The Ideal would be to run more than one system to help kill the bordommand excite the punter inside haha...

So statistically it may take a while to see some bigger returns but it is possible.

I think the level stakes would lower the profits in this plan?

Winner winner chicken dinner!

The Win % is the Raw % of LS Winners at their next start without taking into account any other factor.

The Winning % of favs who won their LS is 30.8 % therefore a 70 % chance of losing and usually at a poor price.

If you bet those favs in the 55.0 - 57.5 Kg range then the strike rate is considerably higher.

Without any Form study I,d be inclined to look for Favs in the last 4 races with weight 55.0 - 57.5 KG that are at $4 or better with a senior jockey to 1.5 apptc riding it
I dont have any backup for this though.

The big thing though is to get a better price than the average.

Its almost impossible to win betting 1 horse a race no matter what the BSA tell one.

Well, I've backed enough "dead" horses but eventually I know that there's no point in "flogging" em'

I'm confident in saying that like Two Bets everyone (oldies) on this forum has made the mistake of progression betting. The end result is always the same if there's a profit @ level stakes the % profit will be the same with progression betting, if there's a level stakes loss, the % LOSS ON TURNOVER will be at least the same if not magnified.

Good luck!

Thanks for the input everyone not bad for a first post...

It's my first real idea so happy with the discussion...

Obviously I have a lot to learn and I look forward to the challenge.

Any high profit reasonable turnover systems people want to throw at me would be more than welcome to help me develop systems... As I hope I can contribute positive input.

My preferred e-mail is [email] k-davids at live dot com


Winner winner chicken dinner!

agree with your general thrust there darkyd, for me anyway most of its in the weights, bryz55 suggest you spend a bit of time looking in that direction.

but darkyd, whats this 'BSA'?