Once that is complete, and you have your table Of Grade Par figures all grades, you can then set out to handicap each race, of course spreadsheets help, select a past performnace line, lookup the Grade Par table then make an adjustment for margin beaten.
Thats about it...the only other adjustments you would need to do is Box position adjsutment for form coming in and for form going out (make adjsutment for todays race ) Now your ready to get serious in creating a set of probabilities.
The biggest mistakes one can make in greyhounds is to use averages for things like "calls" etc, as this is Ordinal data, and should be acted upon as such.


[ This Message was edited by: woof43 on 2003-01-05 00:03 ]

[ This Message was edited by: woof43 on 2003-01-05 00:23 ]

I have attached the grade avg figures for all Grade Classifications in Victoria.
the idea is to check each formline make a note of the avg grade figure then add the margin beaten.
Then do an avg of the last 6 or 5 starts to get each dogs Class rating.this is a very simplistic method but its generally very effective as with Horse racing you need to balance your Class figures with Speed/Time figures
A very big hint!!
Remember Class shows in the most recent runs, Speed shows in all runs..
Grade
3 30.22743088
4 30.18140841
5 30.46811196
5F 30.11264684
5P 30.26039339
5Q 30.64659096
5Q 30.70089864
5QF 30.45807385
5T 30.21262206
Â** 30.08164716
F 30.0572205
G 30.34478656
J 30.39132818
M 30.43801822
MCF 30.22249293
MF 30.38966343
MQ 30.66184484
MQF 30.22413873
MT 30.49659058
MZ 30.4463714
N 30.60936992
P 29.68142857
S 30.09632296
SF 29.99228366
SG1 29.97609495
SG2 30.01822341
SG3 30.17976744
SGL 29.99066397
SP 30.12081568
ST 30.09958627
X 30.2011145
X23 29.88255713
X34 30.08001744
X34P 30.24060693
X45 30.28681718

Is there somewhere that punters can get the form without paying for it a la the harness racing form which is available for free on the net. I have a few theories which I would like to test. Need to have no. of lifetime runs and place %s.
I think that greyhound racing is one of the few areas in which a profit can be made by place betting. I don't have the evidence to back this up, however.

you can visit the grv.org.au site for all form on dogs racing in victoria it is free.
The best method in finding value for place betting is by using Monte Carlo simulations in excel using each dog or horses Life to date speed form..

Thanks Woof
Will tell you how I go.

woof43 could you please tell me how to use the monte carlo in excel would much appreciate it i can be contacted at rjs99@iprimus.com.au

If you search for Simtools & Formlists addins for excel on the net you will find a few free addins that will allow you to do Monte carlo simulations.
Why you use is MCsims for place batting an exotic betting is because the Std deviation plays a big part in determining place getters in racing in all codes.

Having some time on my hands this lazy Sunday, i put together this set of ratings based on the Class times i provided in previous posts, the first column details the combined Life to Date form & Recency Form, the other columns are self explanatory.
Normally the top 3 dogs in the Req. Payoff will provide the winner.If you look at the Recency column an compare to the Req Payoff column if the Recency is shorter in price you can bet this dog will be overbet by the public...Remember this is only based on Class without using Time at All
Class the ability to compete in todays grade.
R3 19/01 Bendigo
Box Req.PayoffLTD $ Recency $

1 $5.40 $6.56 $4.53
2 $14.25 $12.14 $17.55
9 $475.97 $265.29 $3,396.01
4 $15.02 $34.52 $9.32
5 $7.80 $5.56 $13.87
6 $3.82 $3.35 $4.49
7 $6.05 $6.74 $5.45
8 $8.31 $9.47 $7.33
R4 19/01 Bendigo
Box Req.PayoffLTD $ Recency $
1 $6.75 $11.33 $6.36
2 $8.16 $6.74 $8.42
3 $11.61 $58.10 $10.37
4 $52.31 $15.69 $80.39
5 $6.72 $5.09 $7.06
6 $11.54 $14.91 $11.17
7 $5.08 $4.77 $5.13
8 $5.22 $4.78 $5.29
R5 19/01 Bendigo
Box Req.PayoffLTD $ Recency $
1 $3.06 $3.67 $2.71
2 $35.13 $20.37 $80.73
3 $9.14 $4.43 $53.12
4 $35.66 $20.45 $84.93
5 $7.30 $6.95 $7.59
6 $11.15 $11.78 $10.70
7 $4.69 $7.06 $3.72
8 $14.80 $29.78 $10.63
R6 19/01 Bendigo
Box Req.PayoffLTD $ Recency $
1 $11.65 $17.70 $8.53
2 $7.80 $5.30 $15.73
3 $31.49 $33.41 $29.68
4 $5.44 $11.59 $3.47
5 $3.50 $3.26 $3.80
6 $17.58 $15.53 $20.48
7 $7.81 $6.47 $10.02
8 $10.03 $8.86 $11.69

R7 19/01 Bendigo
Box Req.PayoffLTD $ Recency $
1 $112.72 $71.71 $189.87
2 $2.69 $3.17 $2.42
3 $8.29 $6.95 $9.61
4 $5.33 $5.21 $5.42
5 $4.34 $4.46 $4.25
6 $36.12 $19.40 $93.20
7 $99.41 $95.59 $102.32
8 $23.65 $20.54 $26.49

R8 19/01 Bendigo
Box Req.PayoffLTD $ Recency $
1 $2.60 $3.88 $2.21
2 $5.86 $11.99 $4.59
3 $8.71 $6.94 $10.11
4 $9.29 $6.59 $11.95
5 $9.70 $8.84 $10.24
6 $17.56 $8.62 $40.21
7 $51.78 $21.75 $206.54
8 $23.03 $11.40 $51.57