OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - More smoke and mirrors to the test

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#11

18th September 2010, 03:55 PM

partypooper partypooper is offline

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Join Date: Nov 1999

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 2,426

Stugots, you have a good point there, I can't remember how long Maxi divi has been around but I think its longer than Betfair??? any one know for sure.

Your other point could be true as well, my bets are spread between various "family members" who also have accounts with a several outfits, so it would be pretty hard to pin it down. (4 comps in the house as well)

I have one place plan though that has hovered around 4% POT for 5 years +($100 bets) and no problem with the accounts (up to now)

#12

18th September 2010, 04:27 PM

stugots

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Posts: 868

i think one thing we all could agree on is that were are definitely much better off now than we were a just a few years ago as to the prices we can obtain if we want to put a bit of work in, & that competition for the punters $'s can only be a good thing.

tabs? other than a fun bet or 2 at the pub now & then, i dont remember the last serious bet i had with one

Last edited by stugots : 18th September 2010 at 04:30 PM.

#13

18th September 2010, 05:15 PM

Shaun

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 3,403

Give it a few years because unless betfair increase there pool sizes to a good level that is all you will have, i personally would love 1 tote

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#14

18th September 2010, 05:26 PM

stugots

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the next generation of punters will take to bf & similar products like the proverbial fly to dog u know what

why 1 tote Shaun??, the second those in control had achieved that frightening feat commission rates would be going only one way - up!!

#15

18th September 2010, 05:35 PM

Shaun

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Location: Western Australia

Posts: 3,403

Yeah thats the only problem i would agree, but it would be great midweek to drop 2k on runner and not have the price drop like a lead balloon

#16

18th September 2010, 05:46 PM

stugots

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Posts: 868

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun

Yeah thats the only problem i would agree, but it would be great midweek to drop 2k on runner and not have the price drop like a lead balloon

fair enough, one can only dream i guess of Aussie racing with Honkers sized pools

#17

19th September 2010, 12:15 AM

partypooper partypooper is offline

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Location: Western Australia

Posts: 2,426

Stugs, had to eat humble pie today as one of my selections PR5 Boogie Business

got up at $8.10c (BOB) and paid $11+ Bet fair SP, so there you go, but I have to say very unusual @ that price as my method is based on Late Mail Selections!

#18

20th September 2010, 08:12 AM

Michal

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Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 1,007

Stugots,

Why do you think that TAB would increase their commissions ? I think that one tote isn't about ONE tote , but rather one comingled pool.

Personally, and it is also the opinion of lot of people that I speak with, the options and choice for punters ends at about $250 bet. Try to get anything larger then that on and see what choice you have. This is so well documented by MANY serious punters. You will most likely have a choice of closed accounts, restricted betting products, reduced odds, rejected bets, reduced bet size. Choices ? Its all just crap that works for a $10 weekend warrior. Its much harder to do with bigger bets. Forget about the claims of corporate that they will take anything on . LOL Have you seen the small print from Tom W. ???? web site? The select clients he takes on for good money AREN'T certainly getting best fluck , or best tote or anything like that! They get fixed price that isn't at ALL that generous.

I have written something about this before, what most people think is a choice is an illusion. Lets say that you operate a $50 test system. You have gotten good results shopping here and there and everywhere. Now you are ready to escalate, and really start punting not for fun (no such thing) but to make a living which is what all of us want to do. You start betting $1000, all of a sudden your bets which would have been excepted at $7 for $50 without a problem, are reduced to $250 and they tighten the price to $6 or worse. All of a sudden your 'cream' has gone sour, because you can't get it and so the results you HAD when testing can't be replicated ! Start punting with serious money and most of the methods that people employ will not be able to be replicated. (I don't mean any disrespect referring to seriousness of anyone's punting) What about a longshot system, like those that are being 'offered' here? You think that you have a choice ? You think that you can get set for $100 at $70 ? May be once. Win twice like that and they will cut you or close the account. Put that on any of the TAB's and your div will be halved. That is why Aus Tote, and Typhoon pools all pulled out! No one serious enough COULD BET WITH THEM ! Their prices were always better , sure if you bet cents not dollars !!! Stick a $100 bet on anything in those pools and you made a new favorite. On a small scale this is exactly the problem most larger punters face. Fragmentation of the overall pool size doesn't serve almost anyone !

Its a simplistic view, and sure you could have 10 accounts and bet $100 with them all. Good luck managing this because not all will have that premium price ! Unfortunately those that will oppose this view will be those that I wish the best of luck and good fortune. I want them to be successful shopping around ! Why ? Because sooner rather then later I will be proven right, because Its a fact !

One comingled pool would instantly eliminate the Bookies 'stealing' revenue from the TAB, (more money for the industry - supposedly) as all the bookies would just start dumping most their risk back in the pool anyway. You would still have choice - Fixed price, Early markets, Best fluck, Betfair, Tote plus 5% or what ever on the corporate sites. They would love it as there won't be any surprises, like unitab dropping their com and making them payout much more then they anticipated. I actually think that the bookies (those that stayed in business) would breathe a sight of relief and might be a bit more adventurous with their fixed products.

There would still be competition between the TAB's because they get paid based on the amount that they placed into the pool, so they might give incentives more freely, to medium punters if not just through their corporate arms like luxbet and centerracing. They will be still 3 - 6 different TOTE entities that they are now each of the states has their own gov. controlling it. Betfair will still be a major competitor to keep the com's stable.

What makes you think that they cant all just put up their commissions now ? Especially as they don't need to agree and aren't bounded by any agreements.

Fragmentation of the punting dollar is bad, the more choice (thinner spread) the money is the less REAL choice there is. HK is huge , because they attract the right investors with that product. That can only happen with large enough pools. If you were to comingle just the 3 main totes (plus their already comingling partners) you might have something like $200,000+ win pool on a normal country race. May be $1 mil + on a metro race on a Saturday. This would start drawing out punters from the wood work. The size would be probably even larger then that due to the corporate dumps. Then watch the overseas investments come in ! It will take a while, but they will come. Stability of the price is what will draw them in and the punting product freequency.

A lot of the bullshist would be able to be let go , managing 5 family members accounts in order to get a bet on ( as one forum member eluded to somewhere here), the frustration of being cut down, back or rejected. The absolute devastation when the tote you chose has the lowest div and so on. The increased stability in the price will allow punters to punt not manage accounts ! That is the real problem. Ofcourse it can be done, but it would just be great if you saw a horse and said yep I will bet on that and pressed a button and KNOW that you would get a fair price.

Works in HK, they have no corporates ! Well, we can't do that here, they have that good gov. there that does what it wants ! But we can certainly reduce the fragmentation of the product being offered with one tote pool.

Just my thoughts.

Michal

PS I also forgot to mention that Betfair has a speciall rate for those that become too sucessfull. Its called Premium Charges ! See how fast the bouble bursts when that gets applied and see what choices punter have then !

PSPS Party that $11 winner you missed out on, are you sure that you would have got ALL your bet on at that price ? Was that price available at the time that YOU wanted to bet ? or was it the last few bucks of the desperados trying to pinch a few bucks at the start of the race??? and if you used the SP would have your bet in that 'pool' still produced the same div ?

Last edited by Michal : 20th September 2010 at 08:18 AM.

#19

20th September 2010, 08:59 AM

peterpan

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Join Date: Feb 2007

Posts: 87

Michal,
Excellent post and I agree with everything you have said.
I have been place betting daily with some success for quite a few years now and I use 2 tabs placing half my bet on each, which gives me a good average price. I would use 3 tabs but do not have the time as I bet very late.

I started a while ago to use a corporate and was getting my normal results and everything was fine.
This went well for a few weeks but then I was cut back on my bet size, and remember I place bet only and my bet size is in the hundreds only.

Basically as one well know corporate wrote to a few successful punters they only cater to recreational punters.

Fact of life if you constantly win week in week out the corporates don't want you even if you only bet in the hundreds.

One large tab would make my life a lot easier, and please no people post about the tab takeout.........just check the percentages the corporates work to on the midweeks, sometimes up to 160%.

#20

20th September 2010, 10:11 AM

Shaun

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 3,403

Those that shop around are in for a rude shock in the future because the big UK firms are buying up all the Aus books, and you think our books restrict you, wait till these guys take over.

Peterpan, who do you currently use for your bets?

Have you tried http://www.dynamicodds.com/

Last edited by Shaun : 20th September 2010 at 10:27 AM.

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