Hi Party,

Carefull with Actual V Hypo.
Your scenario yesterday 21 bets for 13 wins-return 22.83
profit 1.83 = 8.7%POT on a SR of 61%.
This would require an avg return of 1.615 to break even.
Your return(22.83) = 1.756 avg
Had you bet 100 per selection, your return = 2283
2283-2100 = 183 profit.

Take that to the next stage.
Bet to return 100 per selection
Your avg return (1.75)rounded would require 57.5 outlay
to return 100.625 per selection.
21x57.5 = 1207.5 out
13x100.625 = 1308.125 in = profit 100.625 POT 8.2%

183 profit level stakes V 100.625 betting to 100

On this occassion level stakes wins out
Each day will vary, depending upon avg return per selection.
Hope this helps.

Party, how do the Place dividends offered by the bookies hold up longterm? Say if i lost 5% or 6% on a place method on a single TAB, can you turn that into profit by taking what the bookies offer?

raven, I wouldn't pretend to be any ************ (re this thread) but one thing is for sure I would NEVER bet on any one Tote.

The examples shown were prices available on Betfair. I guess there is no reason that you couldn't use fixed prices available from any bookies as long as the "overs" principle was employed.

I'd better say though as it turns out over 2500 bets there was virtually no difference betting best tote compared to the prices that you COULD have got with Betfair, which isn't much good to us I know if youre trying to bet to prices, it would be a very hairy and miss affair guessing, you'd win some and lose some.

partypooper -- check your outlay -- i think you'll find it comes to $1195 (not $1095)

cheers!

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,

Gets even more confusing, I checked that and it actually comes to $1144, (not sure how I did that as its all auto calc, but anyway,its not as good but still its 13.60% POT on 1144 so I'm still not convinced WHY?

PS How did you arrive at $1195, when you don't know the prices of the nags?

I'll post the exact details

Thanks everyone for the feedback, Interesting simple idea Michaelg, I guess you place your bets at a given point b4 the off??

Peterpan,

An excellent reply which of course explains it but still,

I didn't bet an average on each did I? I bet to prices and the return of

$1300 return from an OVERALL outlay of $1144 is still $156 which is profit on turnover of 13.6% (OVERALL)

In my mind I still add up ALL bets placed whatever size whatever outcome, -V- Total returns to arrive at a POT OR LOT, am I wrong to do this?

partypooper -- except for rounding errors i get the same result as you -- there is a massive difference between betting at level stakes and proportional staking -- bcoz there is little variance in the dividends (and i assume that this is a representative sample) then proportional staking seems the way forward

good luck with it!

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