zorro wrote...
"One a more positive note, I have "stolen" the ideas from forum members about sectional times and the "pace" of races to create a different set of ratings.
The first weeks are too god to be true - time will well!! "

now zorro, if you are going to generate success from the ideas handed out freely in this forum, at least you could not taunt us with the goodies and instead share your findings for us all to see.

whilst I respect the right of all of you to keep your own secret systems to yourselves, I think its only right that if you take ideas from the contributions of the members and turn them into something useful then you share the new method with all.

if we dont do this the contributions might dry up :smile:

have a successful day,
Every Topic

Every topic,

Place Stats for favourites this year:

Country: 2243/3678 (61% SR) loss 8.9% (NSW tab)
Provincial: 2949/4745 (62.1% SR) loss 8.6%
Metro: 2115/3483 (60.7% SR) loss 7.1%

Total: 7307/11906 (61.4% SR) loss 8.2%

In reply to Every Topic:
The approach I am developing is to-
1) Get a horse's actual last 600m time using the Sportscolour web-site, ignoring the occasionally crazy times they post.
2)Adjust this time for the Daily Track Variant i.e. the fastness/slowness of the track on that day.
3)Compare the adjusted time with the Par time for that track/distance and thus obtain a rating for the horse.
4) Adjust the rating for the pace of the race.e. g . if they crawl for the early sections of a race the last 600m will naturally be proportionally faster than normal so the rating should be down-graded.
Of course the integral part of the whole deal is determining the par times and the standard % that the last 600 represents of the total race time.
Hope this gives you some ideas.

hey Zorro,

Quite a few years ago now (between 1994-97) I used to do something similar. But the actual time they ran wasn't important. Actually, I didn't the study times they ran.

I used to buy the Sporting Globe each week and use their brilliant Race Photos for the 800m, 400m and wining post. I would track each horse for the last 400m and measure how many lengths it gained or lost in the business end of the race, and give each horse a rating (100 being the best for the race).

You could then compare the performances of each horse in the race to one another. I always took special notes of races where only 1 or 2 horses in a race ran the last 800m (or 400m) at least 2.5 lengths faster than the rest of the field. It was a brilliant pointer to a horse improving and running well in its next 2 starts.

I would look at the pace of a race, and make a judgement on whether it was fast early, slow etc, to further analyse the merit of these runs.

I really noticed some quite excelent performances with that method, and quite a lot of these horses went on to win at Group level soon after. So you can back them as they step up through the grades.

My advice is to keep it up, it's a good method, I found it very rewarding. A lot of value in my selections, as it wasn't a common method of analysis.

Good luck.

The true beauty in compiling SP and actual win results by probs breakdown is it gives a basis to do further studies on jockeys & barriers.
Like checking every ride of each jockey based on SP probabilities then compare to the Overal results and so on thru the barriers..
That is if you add the probs for ech ride say Jockey A has been lucky an has ridden $2.00 chances in 10 starts, you would add .5+.5+.5+.5+5 and so on for the 10 starts the total would then be his expected strike rate. It soon becomes clear when you add a second variable like Barrier the true abilities of each jockey and from different sections of the Barrier, this can be applied in their ability in Field size ..the list is endless..if you think about it..

[ This Message was edited by: woof43 on 2003-01-04 10:08 ]

The power of race times is in knowing the acceleration and deceleration of horses of every age and carrying every weight, with this knowledge one is able to make comparision between horses, based on each horses past performances.
Once you have the comparision it gives you the basis to being able to assign probabilities to each horse.
A hint to using Time & Weight linear regression isn't in looking at the distance of todays race, but the avg distances that all horses have competed over in Todays race.