Hi wesmip1.

I was wondering whether you could let me know the fate of $30 plus Australian horses on Betfair for the past few years.

Basically I am wondering whether laying one or all horses over say $30 would be profitable long term. Maybe the lowest price that's closest to (but above) $30, or $40, $50 etc.

I had my bot set to lay one random runner between 30-50 today and it came up with 22 winning lay bets but I'm sure one accident would stuff it up and more than one would be just crap to say the least.

Wes,

Not sure if you can test it but what about-

Unitab top rater

19 race starts or less

last four starts unbroken by spell (90 day)


Would be keen to see the results for races that dont have more than one horse with less than two race starts but again not sure if you can test that.

Cheers.

I have 6 months data but it confirms over $30 on betfair is suicide.

Laying all selections over $30 ended up with 23034 selections and if you layed at the available odds you would have paid out 25992. Approx a 10% loss before any commission is taken into account.

Over $100 showed 5773 selections and you would have paid out 6431 before commission is taken into account.

Laying the longest priced runner in the race (min $30 price) showed 7181 selections (or races) and a payout of 8840 before commission is taken into account.

I played around though and found a profitable method for you if you can stomach it and have a deep bank.

You can use unitab ratings or cp ratings. cp is available at r and s neurals.

Stick to those which rank at least 14th or worst in each of these and stick to laying horses above $80.

This had 791 lays for 1 winner at $90.

Obviously one winner could make it bad though so I wouldn't be doing it.

Thanks for that wesmip1. I thought there was a reason I haven't laid any of these in the past, lol. I certainly don't fancy laying anything above 80.

Try this laying approach that does work.

RULES
Target all horses in Barrier No.3

Must be in top 5 TAB Nos. after scratchings.
e.g. if a scratching we replace it with the one underneath

Must be priced 5.50-9.80

They very rarely ever get up.

You wont find many at each venue, usually 1 or 2 qualifiers

Bet .6% of bank flat stakes.

Stop betting for the day if we get bit 3 times on the day.

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Cheers.

Also must have 7+ runners.

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Cheers.

I had in my db 630 selections for a 537.10 outlay on winners. It had a strike rate of 12%.

So yes this is a good laying plan as it is showing a profit.

Just did a quick look through the barriers and you could also include barrier 4. But that is the only other one worth considering as barriers 1 and 2 both showed a loss for laying.

If you include barrier 4 you get the following :

1270 selections for 154 winners (12%) paying out 1095.50. Assuming 5% commission you would have made 118.70 units profit. Close to 9% profit.

Most of the profit came from the top two tab numbers. So if we restrict it to top 2 only:

524 selections for 58 winners(11%) paying out 412.30. at 5% cmission you would have made 88.40 units profit.

This is over 6.5 months.

Added one extra filter of top 4 avg prizemoney and you get:

332 selections for 32 winners(9%) paying out 227.90. at 5% cmission you would have made 89.10 units profit.

So new rules are:

Barrier 3 or 4
Top 2 tab numbers
Top 4 avg prizemoney rank
Price between 5.50 and 9.80 on betfair
and field size 7+

Good Luck

sorry Dale just realised I missed this post.

I had 3294 selections for a return on betfair of 3299.85


Wasn't sure if you wanted to bet or lay these so didn't dd any extra filters.

I added the extra filter with only 1 horse or less with less then 2 race starts.
It had 2093 selections for a return on betfair of 2102.55

Thanks Wesmip for doing all that.

Its all very interesting.

__________________
Cheers.

Thanks Wes,

Was looking to bet,interesting that the race filter didnt change things at all,safe to say it could be ignored with this one.

If youve got the time the one filter i would look to add would be to only consider those with 11 to 19 race starts,this should take care of the maidens,2&3yos i was worried about with the race filter and bring it into line with where my research showed a horse was at its best.

After that field size might be worth looking at.