Pauls123,

I don't know if this is helpful, but to calculate the return on S.P. laying for a liability of $30 is:

1) deduct $1 from the S.P price.
2) then divide $30 by it.

For example, if the S.P. price is $4.40, we deduct $1, leaving $3.30.

We then divide $30 by 3.30 = $9.09 (this does not include Betfair's commission).

Contrary to backing, with laying and there is a late scratching, this does not reduce the S.P. price, it reduces the liability.

Am I wrong in thinking that nobody has given this a second thought?

28 winning nights from 30, and one of those losses was 1/5 of a risk unit.
Icing on last nights results was that although far too many favs won for my liking a profit was ensured by an early race where the $1.12 fav lost.

Hi Mark, So let me get this straight in my old brain. Your going into Betfair UK site every night around 10pm, I guess that's UK around 11am, and laying every horse in every race for an outlay of $30 aussie dollars. I guess Beffair does some sort of UK money conversion.

And then Betfair does a dutch laying method to distribute a lay bet on every runner to total $30 overall. So may I ask, what is the expected profit that you might make out of a night. This is very intriguing,

Regards, Paul

Yes & no Paul.

I'm guessing that your pretty much a beginner by your statement that you weren't really sure what the %'s meant.
Learning the % are the basis of bookmaking & punting. Learn them and how they work.

Betfair SP lays to liability so different prices have different bets & different payouts. Every race market is structured differently, so laying for different amounts is crucial. I try to risk every favourite for a similar amount, (1 risk unit) which is only really possible if you wait until the last minute before betting. Laying earlier in the evening as I do is not perfect as horses tighten and drift which may change the possible results, but it's swings & roundabouts.

At the moment I'm averaging a profit of 5 (risk) units per night.

When I eventually attack the US markets I'll be flying pretty much blind but 9 times out of 10 the SP fav will be the only loser, only for differing amounts each race.

Mark I have been having a look at aussie markets only with some surprisingly positive results, & as yet no one has mentioned how to approach sp markets <100% - simply turning your approach around has worked well with the small sample ive looked at so far