I just follow them for 14 days max from when their posted then discard.
Cheers
darky

Would someone give a bit of feedback on this please?

I'm going to back horses with a decent Win S/R% until they fall out of that pre-determined Win S/R%. They must be racing in decent quality metro races, not #78 etc.

I'm going to eliminate .....

• Horses that have won 6 or 7 races in their first 7 or 8 runs based on the logic that they can't keep it going, and have probably had the guts run out of them ..... and if the above turns out to be incorrect on the rare occasion, then they'll be too short anyway.
• Horses that are running in low grade events, on the basis that even tho' they have a high Win S/R%, the trainer doesn't rate them.
• Fillies and Mares backing up within 7 days, this is a good 'un a system rule that's worthy of throwing in.
• Odds on pops.
• Horses in their next preparation that are obviously going targetted to distance events. They'll be given a different preparation to previous ones and the chances of them continuing with their high Win S/R% are low.

I'm going to give extra attention to .....

• Geldings ..... and maybe eliminate mares altogether. What about Horses that still have their manhood???
• Horses from interstate and NZ because their form is sometimes underrated and the odds reflect that.

That's basically it.

Any feedback welcome ......

Hi Barny,

You might want to give some thought to not eliminating odds on pops. Looking at the recent stats from UB they actually do well overall and are worth throwing in even just as anchors in all-ups.

I'd recommend really studying a horses form patterns, often it will give you a clue as to how they operate. Some need a few runs to come to their top, others put in only one good run in a prep, some also run good / bad / good / bad almost like clockwork and then there are the grinders that put in week in, week out, running consistent places.

Regarding tackle:
It's interesting to see the stats on Peter Moody regarding colts. It seems the ones that keep their manhood go very well indeed.

Strikerate: 27%
Wins: 28/96
P.O.T. 11.5%

The Schmile

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Hi shaun, a very interesting post of yours. A couple of your comments you made ......

"Since i have enough runners to last me 6 months and the stakes oneach runner is slowly going up i won't add any new runners for the moment untili have halved my current stable, lets see how long that takes."

I'm looking for a methodical approach to adding and deleting runners. Your method is a black book type method, and would not suit me as I need rules as 'inflexible' as I can get.

"I am going to retire the current stable as there are few of theserunners resuming now, I may start another one latter."


ditto my comment above.

Really interesting to note that PPM's Horses to Follow showed a profit I believe year after year, so this stable approach has merit. I just don't think one can follow a horse for as many runs as you suggest.

There was a system of sorts posted on here where Group winning and placed horses were given points depending upon the quality of the race and the horses finish. This poster backed these Group horses for what seemed like forever, but as he used a points system to rate each horse, he only had one bet per race. He was very patient and once a horse qualified, it seemed to qualify for life on the basis that it was a top notch horse. there was room for improvement in this system I'm sure. I recall Tears I Cry who fluked a Group win, then spent the next couple of years where it couldn't get a suitable race, and eventually lost so many times it eventually got back to a suitable grade and won a few races on the trot.

There's merit in the stable system, but I reckon you need to have tight rules to get rid of horses quickly. That's one element where my fixed Win% system appears to avoid throwing good money after bad.

I agree, i have tried the stable system in the past a few times and it can work if you have the right selections and how long to follow them for.

But as i said the other issue is how many to follow.

Following a stable list is like the stock market, know when to get in and know when to get out.

I did have some stats around here will have to see if i can find them but it showed that following about 75% of horses from day 1 in there career to the end would have produced a profit.

Even a horse that wins say 5 in 50 runs can produce a profit, but i don't even want to start thinking of how much it would cost to do this.

The group or listed company is a good idea at least you know a horse has some class if it places in those races.

Giving horses points for winning or placing in Group races, as a ratings method, has merit. The only thing I didn't like was that this poster kept the horses on his list forever, BUT then only backing them when they were top pick. So I suppose that other horses would overtake them in points as they compete in Group races and do well, and that some out of form horses would drop in class.

shaun, I don't see it as an issue as to how many you follow. You're trying to profit from the horse only.

I'd love to figure out how to eliminate a few more losers though.

Anyone with a suggestion as to the type of race to FILTER OUT would be most welcome.

Hi Barny,

I found this website you might be interested in to build your stable with quality NZ horses:

Top 100 rated NZ horses

The Schmile

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Thanks for that The Schmille. Just need to find out their winning % and I'll break the NZ TAB.

One thing that I'll point out to anyone reading my post about following a pre-determined Win% S/R and keeping the horse in your stable so long as it doesn't slip out of that pre-determined Win% S/R is this; - You do get first up winners, and good priced second up winners especially if they didn't go so well first up. Although I flick them if they've lost 3 in a row even if there still within the Win% parameters, I DO pick them up again after a spell IF they remain qualified.

Here is a mechanical method to select horses to follow...

List horses which last started at $1.60 (say 7/4on) win or lose anywhere!
Delete if 1) Win strike rate less than 25%
2) Less than 4 race starts
3) Older than 5 years.
Follow for three starts 1 unit, 2 units , 3 units stop at win.

You have a horse well supported at it's last run, good strike rate and with enough runs to have proved it's form.
The rules also limit your list of horses to ,I hope, the more likely future winners.

Example, Sheza Dragon last Tuesday Townsville 1st start won $2.40 Prev.start 2/1on. Of course some will be short but others reasonable.
For your improvement or dismissal. Good luck all.