Mmm, interesting, I can provide the extra info though but it would be the win odds 1 minute b4 the off.

But alas I don't think it would do us any good as I am not taking prices but betting at best tote?

Actually no I can't , I've just realised that I've only got the prices of those that placed, I can do it but it will take some time.

But, funnily enough this plan evolved out of another that I was working for some time, here I only bet if the place odds available were 1/4 the opening price 1 minute b4 the off (bet fair) this showed a 5% LOT @ BF (no commission) but just broke even if the same criteria was used but the bet placed @ Best Tote

Anyway thanks for the feedback, its pretty scary 3% POT, but over that no. of bets I thought I was on the right track (no PUN intended, hee hee!)

Hi Partypooper,

Let me get this straight, you are betting $200 at level stakes and have had 3,080 bets and have won $90.40 after all those bets. So one extra lost bet today would have you -$109.60.

I'm definitely no hexpert (believe you me), and I don't mean no disrespect, but that doesn't seem like a good way to be "investing" your $200 a pop.

You're almost better off going all up for a few wins in a row. My parlay place betting with my bot didn't exactly work out as I was betting on any and every fav but if you have a good strike rate you could parlay your winnings for 3, 4 or 5 races in a row then start over. I reckon that $90 could be a lot higher.

In my testing $5 level stakes worked out to be something like +$50 but 5 x all up (parlay bets) had the total around $500 (for $5 bets for crying out loud)

Maybe go over your results and see how many times you would of had a few winners in a row. And, if you are doing it right, you should only lose one set stake if you get a loser before the last bet in the series of say 5 bets. Just a suggestion.

G'day Ocho, not quite that bad , a bit too long in the tooth for that performance.

the returns shown are to $1 stakes, for ease of understanding, I happen to bet $200 on each selection which means a total investment of $616,000 for a return of $634,080.

The stakes are irrelevant in the sense that its still only 2.94% profit on turnover.

I mentioned that my stakes are $200 on each just to emphasise that at that level it does not seem to affect the divi (as far as I know)

I appreciate that some professional punters would be betting 10 or even 20 times that, which I'm sure would alter the divvies and the profitability no doubt.

I was betting a % of bank quite aggressively a few years ago and observed a profitable plan go into decline as the dividends were affected. When I reverted back to $100 (my bets at that time) level stakes the plan again turned profitable, and is still going strong now (6 years+ on)

One further point, at $200 stakes and up to 60 bets a week, I have NEVER used 1c of my own money ever!! thats a bit cryptic but a few here will know what I mean.

Well, now you're talking ops:. I mean, I was gonna say...lol.

Sorry about that chief!

You're obviously doing something right. Have you ever looked at your stats for going all up for a few bets in a row? The problem you would have then may be the same as when you were raising your stakes to the percentage of bank which means it may start affecting the divvie when your 5th bet is for $2000 or something.

I'm not sure what you mean by not using your own money (maybe using sign up bonuses or something?). I started off playing online poker with $12 in about 2006 and haven't put in any money since. I pulled some out a couple of years ago and put it into Betfair and, again, haven't put my own money in. Unfortunately it is starting to run low now though

Keep it up partypooper

G'day Ocho, tried the lot mate every staking plan you can think of, the end result is level stakes is the ONLY way. Or put it another way, staking will NEVER turn a losing plan into a winning one (long term)

with a staking plan all you're actually doing is increasing stakes, so the POT stays the same over time.

Having said that the % of bank, is probably acceptable, but say, 1% never decreasing.

What I did was much more aggresive,, trying to makle hay out of the long winning runs, betting place only, but as I said it backfired.

Well they are as objective as you can get in this analysis. They are based on the odds obtained and odds are subjective. But as far the analysis it is usually a good guide on when to start betting. I only bet systems that have less then half a percent due to luck (and are not backfitted ... ie tested over real bets).

Its all to do with probability and some more advanced topics on it. I beleive using the analysis I do is the correct way to know when to bet a system.

The answer to your last thing is if you do have an edge the more bets you have the lower the % chance plays a role. So you would normally see a system sit at 100% chance to start with and slowly move away to be pure edge. As I said half a percent chance is the right time to start betting. before that you should collect more data.

Hope that helps. If you ever want a system analysed make sure you keep your stats for me (every odd on every horse win or lose).

I'll assume arbitrage betting or bonuses.

There is also another way to get back a % of your money. It not well known and I don't want to divulge it here but it is possible to get back a percentage of what you bet regardless of if it wins or loses.

thanks again Wes, I am devil with the cryptics arn't I?

Like Mark, the biggest kick I get is with arbing, even though the profit might be tiny. It started in the UK many years ago with a 3 horse race, I backed the 2nd fav, with a saver on the rank outsider, booger me if they didn't put a fortune on the 2nd fav, which duly shortened dramatically and I suddenly realised that I could now back what was the original fav as well and win no matter what, not true arbing in that case but ahhhhhh ! it's a great feeling!

Bonuses, well I never knock em back, but as the S/R is somewhere between 75-80% depending, I always hope the free bets are losers if you see what I mean?

And as for those "other %" sometimes I want to sing from the rooftops, BUT, its a door that could close very quickly, so mums the word!

wesmip1 would appreciate your analysis of the following set of figures - they represent the results of a set of self generated ratings with no filters applied & cover most races from maidens to the mc.

they are currently returning a pot of 1.56% and with the addition of a few simple filters show an acceptable profit & i have been betting live for a few months now.

I guess what i would find interesting is if your analysis puts the profit so far from underlying basis for the selections (my ratings) down to luck or not.


number of selections - 6130
number of winners - 1009
sum of 1/price (of all selections) - $962.41

My concern was someone taking a small sample of what later turned out to be a winning method would show it as a high chance probabilty,dont doubt the usefulness of it just the effect an early application of it could have on the confidence of the user.

Like everything,the more data the better.