How do I go about laying the field.

Michael that's sounding good. I'm pretty much exclusively SP into the UK market these days. Looking over my numbers the returns from the last week and a half have been above average. Last night was a pearler peaking at a profit of 65% of bank and finishing with 53% increase in bank betfore Betfair tax. It's up and down though. I'd be expecting a correction tonight.

Think there's a group of us all basically doing variations of a theme

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Benny, every horse has to be clicked in the S.P. lay section to display them on to the laying section. Then the liability for each individual horse has to be inputted in to the appropriate area.

It does not take long, but double-check that every horse has been displayed because it is not too difficult to accidentally omit any one of them.

AngryPixie, I too am laying U.K. races which I do about 9.30 p.m. Sydney time. I'm keeping my head "above water" but it can be hit and miss because the market sometimes changes considerably before even my first race is run.

Michael, I'm running Betbotpro which allows me to be a bit more selective with my races, and means I can pretty much set and forget and have it place the lays in the seconds leading up to jump time. All while I'm asleep

Because last nights result was outside the curve I'd be expecting a loss of up to 20% of bank early on so I'll stay up and run in sim mode until that point is reached, and then switch to live mode. I try not to double guess the market though as you can get caught out, but there's only been two losing nights since Tuesday of last week.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

I presume you are not laying the field?

I want to clarify my POT.

I think the method of my POT calcs is not accurate, and if so, hopefully someone will confirm/correct me.

For the POT I have been using the highest liability layed per horse. For example, if the highest liability I inputted was $40 on no.5, and it was beaten and gave me a profit of $4.00 on the race I would calculate a POT of 10%.

However, I think that the actual liability should be the highest amount I could possibly lose on a particular race. For example, if the worst result was a loss of $5 but I ended up winning $5 I would assume the correct POT should then be 100%.

Assuming the highest liability per race was $4 (this is most likely overstating it) then the POT so far is slightly over 50% - I don't think laying the field is necessarily a bad way to go.

Michael, no not laying the whole field

I've really just stripped everything back to the bare basics and similarly to Chrome I lay all my selections to the same liability. I use 10% of bank. This makes POT calculations easier as I just need to look at the aggregate of what I've risked and divide any profit by that number. i.e. risked a total of $5000 over all races and ended with a profit of $250 is a POT of 5% for the day.

The 10% is more aggressive than some would like (helps to be asleep when that's happening ) but due to laying multiple selections it's effectively more like 5% which is roughly my advantage.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Well done Michael.

You say the liability is set higher for the double digit horses.

Can you say what percentage higher than the single digit priced horses?

__________________
Cheers.

Doesn't pay to be a smarty. Started in simulated mode last night and after 5 races would have had 4 winning lays under my belt and a before Betfair increase in bank of 23.5% At that point stayed in simulated mode and went to bed. Would have finished with 12 winning lays from 27 markets and a closing profit of 26.4%, after peaking at 36.6%. And me without a cent on

Note to self - never forget that it's all random.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

I would say this variance to the expected came about because you are laying not the field, but a portion of it. Therefore you are subjected to greater degrees of highs and lows and dependant on certain runners losing rather than the market corrections.

I lay the entire field and use 2.5% of bank due to massive fluctuations in profit/loss.
Without a doubt 90% of my profit/loss on any day comes from higher or lower than expected odds on favourites saluting for the day.

In your case, not 100% sure, but taking a wild stab, you are relying on a group of horses rather than overall odds on faves.
I'm also laying UK and AUS races using the same principles.

I've found that almost always, when I have a much better or much worse than expected result, it turns around the next day, if not the day after.

My approach is to stake to expectation and it's been working extremely well to date.

E.G.

Day 1 5 units profit to $100 liability
Day 2 6 units profit to $100 liability
Day 3 28 units profit to $100 liability
Day 4 16 units loss to $50 liability****
Day 5 8 units loss to $100 liability
Day 6 6 units profit to $100 liability
Day 7 4 units profit to $100 liability

So I halve the liability for the next day after a big win and double it the next day after a big loss.
But bear in mind, I'm using only 2.5% of bank to start with, @ 10% of bank, it could wipe you out quite quickly.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Chrome hi

The 10% (effectively 5%) is based on quite a deal of research and I'm comfortable using a "maximum boldness" strategy for these selections. It's loosely based on Kelly by using an average advantage and dividend.

Just laying the more popular runners with a simple price based filter. I like it's utility as I put no thought what so ever into any of the selections, can let the bot do it's on thing (running out of Dublin at present) so I don't have to hang around. Can't get quite what I want out of the bot so I do have to touch it each day.

The same approach doesn't seem to work anywhere other than the UK.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash