I would of thought that nos 1-4 would place more often than say nos 7-10.

The Ocho, yes, you're right.

That's what I meant.

The Lay system I referred to had one selection today - Gosford 3/13. It started fave on Betfair and was unplaced. If the system continues to perform I'll list the rules on a new thread. There were no accidents yesterday or Sunday, and there have been some selections that were at single figures.

Yes there is a 5% difference between TAB numbers 1 to 4 and those over 4, but still not winning.

However while looking at the printout I noticed that there is sometimes a huge difference between the actual starting price and the rated price.
Completely the reverse at times by as much as a factor of 3.
Like rated @$10, starting and winning @$3.00 or the other way around.
I will look at that later today.

There is one selection today, Randwick race 2 #5 REIGNING
------------------------------------------------------------
Also maybe worth some thought, (not a distance selection)
GAW Race 5 #1 Callmedan

two for today
HAW Race 4 Maiden 1 Dreams And Desires $2.35
ROC Race 1 Maiden 1 Spotted Eagle $1.8

lomaca, they both won.

I backed Hawksbury 4/1 to Place. On NSW Tab it paid $1.04, on Unitab it was $1.00, I got $1.11 on Betfair. Not much better but percentage-wise it was huge.

Just the one today probably be too short and will do nothing.

IPS Race 1 Open #1 Chew The Fat $2.7

Here is an other to look at, maybe of some value
CAB Race 5 BM65 #3 Old Mystique $ 2.6

This is an interesting point.
When considering the old chestnut of the rated price plus so much percent is overs, I have found the direct opposite to be true.
The above statement assumes that the ratings are accurate and take into account the money that "goes on" is no smarter than the ratings.
I've found this not to be the case.

A quick and dirty review of the last 102 horses that opened on track at less than $2.05 demonstrates.

Backing them all less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a loss of 1.45 units.

Backing the drifters less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a loss of 8.92 units.

Backing the firmers less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 7.47 units.

If I expand the opening price to $3.00 or less, it becomes more interesting.

Backing them all less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 22.09 units.

Backing the drifters less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 12.21 units.

Backing the firmers less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 9.88 units.

So based on the above information, backing the firmers at $2.00 or less opening price and all at $2.05 to $3.00 we get this...
$ 7.47
$23.54

$31.01 units profit from 398 bets, or 7.79% POT based simply on price.

This is from the last 7 Saturday meetings only.

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I played around with the UniTAB ratings quite some time ago. Used a quick and dirty method to convert them to prices, and used the resulting price as the maximum I'd accept. So if rated price was 2.5, I'd back the horse if it was under that price, but not if it was over. Backing only the favourite it was actually quite profitable on the single day I tried it out. Ages ago now but I think I was up 10 or so units on the Saturday.

Makes you wonder where the value really lays.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

The logic behind this was that any ratings I did or had access to would not be as accurate as the market. So if the money was on, somebody must know something I don't. Where there's smoke...

I've said here before that in my opinion ratings tell us what we know, whereas the market tells us what we don't know.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Spot On!

__________________
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Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
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*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
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