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  #11  
Old 4th September 2011, 04:37 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
Better give it away for the day I think, need more time to do it justice


I have found half hearted study usually returns what it deserves.
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  #12  
Old 4th September 2011, 04:39 PM
jose jose is offline
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Lay the 1, 10 & 6.
At least that is what I'd do.
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  #13  
Old 4th September 2011, 04:43 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Elk

Step2
Hse 2: 5.56 * 21 / 18 = $6.48 @ $18
Hse 3: 21.74 * 7.5 / 4.6 = $35.44 @ $4.60
Hse 8: 19.23 * 5.5 / 5.2 = $20.34 @ $5.20

2 wins: profit $54.40
3 Wins: profit $$100.78
8 wins: profit $43.50
Loss if none salute = $62.27


edit:
Okay so I may have used your assessed odds instead of what is available (slight error on my part) - juust follow the principle of the example



Well the Edit explains why there wasn't quite as much bias in favour of the return for the HUGE Overlay #3.
I'll go have a little play with this , but I'ma likin' it alot!

Cheers Elk.
I'll remember you when I hit my first million , and if I don't , don't be ashamed to remind me.
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  #14  
Old 4th September 2011, 05:57 PM
woof43 woof43 is offline
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Box Total Natural Tote Odds
1 $14.14
2 $24.99
3 $8.92
4 $2.38
5 $30.93
6 $6.54
7 $10.71
8 $6.54
Moee, you need to convert the tote odds to 100% or Natural odds. The above set of figures is the Natural odds, based on what you posted. When you convert to Natural odds it makes you see how much $'s is actually on each runner. You then would need to know how much is in the Win Pool, as this will impact on how much you can invest, whilst still maintaining a + return, especially in greyhound racing.
Box Natural Tote % Mine%
1 FALSE FALSE
2 0.04 0.06
3 0.11 0.22
4 FALSE FALSE
5 FALSE FALSE
6 FALSE FALSE
7 FALSE FALSE
8 0.15 0.19
0.30 0.47
Convert each set of odds to a %. as above. Based on your figures I would get an alert if "Mine %'s" were less then 65% (reassess your handicapping)
Box Edge
1 FALSE
2 0.222222222
3 0.847826087
4 FALSE
5 FALSE
6 FALSE
7 FALSE
8 0.25
Then work out your edge, in reality you should be using 3 sets of figures here the 3rd set of figures is your Win efficiency figure based on past results, but for ease of calculating use "mine% X (tote payoff))-(1-Mine%)) will give the edge as above
Box Optimum %
1 FALSE
2 0.01
3 0.13
4 FALSE
5 FALSE
6 FALSE
7 FALSE
8 0.06
Now you need to calculate the opt% to invest which is "edge % /(tote payoff-1))Then just average the above figures to give .0657. So if your betting series Bank is $1,000 your going to invest .0657 of that amount $65.70. Now you'd just a portion this amount to your runners.
Box Bet size * Opt %
1 FALSE
2 9.00
3 25.00
4 FALSE
5 FALSE
6 FALSE
7 FALSE
8 33.00
With rounding up, you'd end up with the following investments.
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  #15  
Old 4th September 2011, 06:20 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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I been playing around with what The Elk posted and I came up with this.

(Available Odds/Rated Odds)-1
Multiply that by 100 * Rated Odds

The 100 figure can be replaced with any suitable number that allows the Bank to withstand a losing run , and to keep the Punter within his comfort zone.

In the example the wagers would have been like this.

2 ROCKADORE 80 cents
3 SISCO SPICE $13
8 MAGIC PENSKI $1

All Other runners have negative results in the Formula so don't qualify.
It would have been a loss of $15

But the available Odds posted were from the Form Guide , and the actual Market Odds available were such that the actual wagers would have been $6.50 on the Winner #4 @ $2.90 and a couple of 50 cent wager losses.
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  #16  
Old 4th September 2011, 06:29 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
1 FALSE
2 9.00
3 25.00
4 FALSE
5 FALSE
6 FALSE
7 FALSE
8 33.00
With rounding up, you'd end up with the following investments.


Something is wrong with these figures Woof43.
I assessed #3 as having a better Chance at winning the Race than #8
And the #3 is available at Larger Odds than #8

It makes sense that the Wager on #3 MUST be LARGER than on #8
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  #17  
Old 4th September 2011, 07:27 PM
woof43 woof43 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Something is wrong with these figures Woof43.
I assessed #3 as having a better Chance at winning the Race than #8
And the #3 is available at Larger Odds than #8

It makes sense that the Wager on #3 MUST be LARGER than on #8


As I had previously said , not knowing your win efficiency from past results, fall back is Joe Public, who overall is a better handicapper than you.
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  #18  
Old 4th September 2011, 07:54 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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If Joe Public is a better Punter than me , then I should be broke by now.
As I'm not I figure me and him are about par.
But I'll catch him , don't you worry about that.
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  #19  
Old 5th September 2011, 09:39 AM
ixlat0 ixlat0 is offline
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moeee
Quote:
Does anyone know a Formula that would work out how much I should invest on these
3 animals.
i do -- if you give me an email address i'll send you a spreadsheet

based on your original figures (and setting total outlay at $10) the bets would be...
#2 $0.50
#3 $8.00
#8 $1.00

have the best day!
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  #20  
Old 5th September 2011, 09:55 AM
moeee moeee is offline
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Thanks for the offer Ixlato , but I have it sorted as you will notice in my post about 5 posts above this one.

Do you use your Formula in your wagering Ixlato , or is it just something that turned up in your Punting travels?
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