#11
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![]() Quote:
I have found half hearted study usually returns what it deserves. |
#12
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![]() Lay the 1, 10 & 6.
At least that is what I'd do.
__________________
Jose'. |
#13
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![]() Quote:
Well the Edit explains why there wasn't quite as much bias in favour of the return for the HUGE Overlay #3. I'll go have a little play with this , but I'ma likin' it alot! Cheers Elk. I'll remember you when I hit my first million , and if I don't , don't be ashamed to remind me. |
#14
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![]() Box Total Natural Tote Odds
1 $14.14 2 $24.99 3 $8.92 4 $2.38 5 $30.93 6 $6.54 7 $10.71 8 $6.54 Moee, you need to convert the tote odds to 100% or Natural odds. The above set of figures is the Natural odds, based on what you posted. When you convert to Natural odds it makes you see how much $'s is actually on each runner. You then would need to know how much is in the Win Pool, as this will impact on how much you can invest, whilst still maintaining a + return, especially in greyhound racing. Box Natural Tote % Mine% 1 FALSE FALSE 2 0.04 0.06 3 0.11 0.22 4 FALSE FALSE 5 FALSE FALSE 6 FALSE FALSE 7 FALSE FALSE 8 0.15 0.19 0.30 0.47 Convert each set of odds to a %. as above. Based on your figures I would get an alert if "Mine %'s" were less then 65% (reassess your handicapping) Box Edge 1 FALSE 2 0.222222222 3 0.847826087 4 FALSE 5 FALSE 6 FALSE 7 FALSE 8 0.25 Then work out your edge, in reality you should be using 3 sets of figures here the 3rd set of figures is your Win efficiency figure based on past results, but for ease of calculating use "mine% X (tote payoff))-(1-Mine%)) will give the edge as above Box Optimum % 1 FALSE 2 0.01 3 0.13 4 FALSE 5 FALSE 6 FALSE 7 FALSE 8 0.06 Now you need to calculate the opt% to invest which is "edge % /(tote payoff-1))Then just average the above figures to give .0657. So if your betting series Bank is $1,000 your going to invest .0657 of that amount $65.70. Now you'd just a portion this amount to your runners. Box Bet size * Opt % 1 FALSE 2 9.00 3 25.00 4 FALSE 5 FALSE 6 FALSE 7 FALSE 8 33.00 With rounding up, you'd end up with the following investments. |
#15
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![]() I been playing around with what The Elk posted and I came up with this.
(Available Odds/Rated Odds)-1 Multiply that by 100 * Rated Odds The 100 figure can be replaced with any suitable number that allows the Bank to withstand a losing run , and to keep the Punter within his comfort zone. In the example the wagers would have been like this. 2 ROCKADORE 80 cents 3 SISCO SPICE $13 8 MAGIC PENSKI $1 All Other runners have negative results in the Formula so don't qualify. It would have been a loss of $15 But the available Odds posted were from the Form Guide , and the actual Market Odds available were such that the actual wagers would have been $6.50 on the Winner #4 @ $2.90 and a couple of 50 cent wager losses. |
#16
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![]() Quote:
Something is wrong with these figures Woof43. I assessed #3 as having a better Chance at winning the Race than #8 And the #3 is available at Larger Odds than #8 It makes sense that the Wager on #3 MUST be LARGER than on #8 |
#17
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![]() Quote:
As I had previously said , not knowing your win efficiency from past results, fall back is Joe Public, who overall is a better handicapper than you. |
#18
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![]() If Joe Public is a better Punter than me , then I should be broke by now.
As I'm not I figure me and him are about par. But I'll catch him , don't you worry about that. |
#19
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![]() moeee
Quote:
based on your original figures (and setting total outlay at $10) the bets would be... #2 $0.50 #3 $8.00 #8 $1.00 have the best day!
__________________
never smile at a crocodile -- don't be taken in by his welcome grin ![]() |
#20
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![]() Thanks for the offer Ixlato , but I have it sorted as you will notice in my post about 5 posts above this one.
Do you use your Formula in your wagering Ixlato , or is it just something that turned up in your Punting travels? |
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