mooee, my 35% has NOTHING ro do with the answer ..... it's a part of the QUESTION. Your answer appears to be correct. Thank you for your effortd. I'll give you a winning system for nothing - 4 sts this time in - PP fav - last two sts 21 or 11 - 250+ or - dist change - 21 days or less - c or t - last st at metro track

BTW there is only one "s" in disappointed ...........

you're welcome

And there only one "s" in efforts and zero "d"

Give the System to someone else.
I don't need help to lose, I can do that just fine without your help.

Barny

Drop this into Excel to give you the probability of getting exactly 3 successes from 5 trials with a 35% chance of success on each trial.

=BINOM.DIST(3,5,0.35,FALSE)

You'll get 18.11%

If you wanted to know the chance of getting up to 3 successes (not exactly 3 successes) replace the FALSE with TRUE.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Thanks AngryPixie, will do.

If it's of interest to you ..... You might like to run that little system through your DB. I don't need your findings.

Gees.This reminds me of Mistermac on another site.

Thanks Barny. Don't keep a database. Always seemed a bit to much effort.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Excellent work Angry Pixie.
Are you a Winning Punter? - You should be.

Thanks. No worries.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Sorry Barny, I took it the other way.

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Cheers.

bhagwan, why would I have a crack at you. You've posted more stuff on this site than I've had hot dinners. The 35% S/R is to do with my selection of mules based on a fixed Win% of higher than 35% with the expectation the win S/R will, over time drop to 35%. I'm looking at ways, other than chase losses, to improve the returns. One good thing that I just didn't factor in, are the multiple selections in some races (somteimes 4+) which need to be pruned to one selection, or depending on the day and the race, may be left out altogether. At the weekend there was one race where there were 4 selections, so the best result would have been a 25% S/R which is much lower than the lowest 35% forecast. Multiple selections, even a couple in a race, make the "Initial Win S/R%" less likely to drop to 35%.

cheers bhagwan
Barny