From memory no.1 wins around 20% of all races.

It's not a bad place to start your form analysis.

If you don't like the top weight, move to the next race.

At the very least you'll be backing the horse that the official handicapper rates the highest, so it's as good as any a place to focus one's efforts.

I would definitely then ask:

Has it won at the distance in the last 12 months?
Has it carried weight before?

Look at Belmont today, the toppies have been on fire.

The Schmile

I agree that weight on its own is insufficient but for the last three weeks in Brisbane Sat I have been supplementing my consistency ratings with a class rating based apparent weight advantage and the results have been more than encouraging, hence my interest in getting more accurate data.
gunny