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  #11  
Old 2nd January 2012, 12:14 PM
aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline
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I always thought the most useful aspect of time was how it related to pace in a race.
thus if your pick is tailed off and they run some" cheap sectionals" it would have no chance as the race would become a quarter-horse finish down the straight.

so you discard the run.

next time under similar conditions where there is a couple of early speedsters in the field you may feel that your pick maybe will be steaming home over the top and represents good value

that's as far as i could get with it.
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  #12  
Old 2nd January 2012, 12:28 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
The Ocho
Can't bring my head around to this laying caper.

I do know that my top time rated selections are not profitable for backing, but at the prices they are running maybe they would be losers at laying?
I mean if one comes in at $25 that is a fair chunk of money to pay out?

Any easy way to test it?

Well I definitely wouldn't be laying anything at $25 but a bot could be set up to lay your own selections in running if they come down to a certain price. If they are virtually leading all the way but then tiring then you would think the price would come down to maybe $3 or $4 (or less). The bot would fire off a bet and hopefully get matched and if it wins you haven't lost so much.

I guess it depends on strike rates and the like.
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  #13  
Old 2nd January 2012, 01:09 PM
woof43 woof43 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Your ability to turn simple into complicated is frighteningly amazing Woof43.

P.S. Can't recall if I replied , but thanks for the complicated sheets.
I have filed them in my "some things are best left to experts" Folder.


If I recall the sheets i provided were in response the contact address you provided.

1 sheet detailed time adjustments one needed to make when comparing a runners time from any track to The Meadows.

The other just detailed the average winners time for every track in Australia over all distances each sheet provided a count as to the confidence/validity of the data.
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  #14  
Old 2nd January 2012, 01:23 PM
lomaca lomaca is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Well I definitely wouldn't be laying anything at $25 but a bot could be set up to lay your own selections in running if they come down to a certain price. If they are virtually leading all the way but then tiring then you would think the price would come down to maybe $3 or $4 (or less). The bot would fire off a bet and hopefully get matched and if it wins you haven't lost so much.

I guess it depends on strike rates and the like.
One question, how do you know what the "in running" price was?
I don't collect any data from BF.

I have very good records as to the selections final TAB prices and finish positions so I could work out the position on lays, but if there is a diff. between "in running" and final price than I'd waste my time.

Thanks to all who replied.
As I said before, I gave up on time rating some time ago only looked at it recently again, it's not something one can do easily, it's more like a black art, too many variables.
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  #15  
Old 2nd January 2012, 01:41 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Phil Purser of "justracing" uses them but god knows why.?
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  #16  
Old 2nd January 2012, 02:38 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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I'm not sure lomaca as to in running prices. My bot can tell you what the highest and lowest the horse traded at but doesn't give how much money was bet at each level.
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  #17  
Old 2nd January 2012, 06:25 PM
lomaca lomaca is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
I'm not sure lomaca as to in running prices. My bot can tell you what the highest and lowest the horse traded at but doesn't give how much money was bet at each level.
Thanks T O.

I think I stick to what I know best, here is an example how bad my time rating is compared to my class rating. (see time text)

Race 6 Pinjarra, you'd think a 1000 M race would be ideally suited for time rating, and yet? (see class text)

Unfortunately the nemesis of not being able to get matched for the full amount struck again, but this time not too bad. (see BF text)
Attached Files
File Type: txt BF.txt (138 Bytes, 272 views)
File Type: txt PIJ0201Class.txt (1.3 KB, 279 views)
File Type: txt PIJ0201Time.txt (1.4 KB, 268 views)
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  #18  
Old 2nd January 2012, 07:12 PM
lomaca lomaca is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
Thanks T O.

I think I stick to what I know best, here is an example how bad my time rating is compared to my class rating. (see time text)

Race 6 Pinjarra, you'd think a 1000 M race would be ideally suited for time rating, and yet? (see class text)

Unfortunately the nemesis of not being able to get matched for the full amount struck again, but this time not too bad. (see BF text)
Not betting but let's see
PIJ race 8
Class No, 6, 9, 7
Time No, 3 ,11 13
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  #19  
Old 2nd January 2012, 07:27 PM
jose jose is offline
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Hope you got some of the TRI Iomaca.
__________________
Jose'.
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  #20  
Old 2nd January 2012, 07:31 PM
lomaca lomaca is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jose
Hope you got some of the TRI Iomaca.
Hate to admit it Jose, I don't even bet a quinella!

Trust me, I had so many two legged tries and three legged quadies that I can't be bothered anymore with multiples.

I would be hard pressed to pick an exa in a two horse race.
Sad but true.

Good luck

Ps should I strech my luck?

Here it goes, no bets again
Race 9 PIJ
Class 2,5,16,3
Time 6,12,5,10

Last edited by lomaca : 2nd January 2012 at 07:35 PM.
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