Just out of interest,

1) backing the top rater in the Don Scott market according to U.B's data, and
2) its last start was 5th or worse, then

according to my input the profit is about 10% for the Win, and between a 2 and 3% loss for the Place.

I also applied the same rule (last start the selection ran fifth or worse) for Unitab's top rater - the result was a 2% profit for Win betting.

However, I presume this is for every 100-pointer on Unitab, so there could be multiple selections in some races.

Interestingly, last start position between 1 and 4 has produced a 9% loss on Unitab.

If both the D.Scott and Unitab results are improved by betting their top selections that finished fifth or worse at last start, then one can easily jump to some contraversial assumptions.

Out of interest I looked at yesterday's faves or equal faves in the Tele that finished 5th or worse at last start.

There were 14 of them for 5 winners.

The TAB return was $16.10 for a 12% POT, and the Betfair S.P. return was $18.74 (includes the 5% take-out) for a 33% POT.

Followign up on this... Add Barrier >= 5



There were 58453 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.There were 419 selections for the System
There were 418 races for the System
There were 114 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 27.21%
There were $515.97 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $96.97 or a percentage profit/loss of 23.14%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : barrier >= 5 and rating = 100 and lastStart >= 5 and donScottRank = 1

Thats a nice return.

Or sacrifice the strike rate a bit for a few more selections:



There were 58453 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.There were 893 selections for the System
There were 872 races for the System
There were 194 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 21.72%
There were $1118.38 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $225.38 or a percentage profit/loss of 25.24%

Test Another System

The Rules used were : barrier >= 5 and lastStart >= 5 and donScottRank = 1

25% return over 893 selections with only a few races with multiple selections.

Hey Michaelg,

The majority of punters have this inbuilt flaw where we think lowest is always best, be it finishing position to barrier to days since last start.

Try trimming the higher finishing postions one at a time untill you are left with the cream.

Ill go for the trifecta UB.


"There were 58453 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 349 selections for the System
There were 345 races for the System
There were 93 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 26.65%
There were $436.97 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $87.97 or a percentage profit/loss of 25.21%



Test Another System

The Rules used were : donScottRank = 1 and daysLastStart >= 90"

Out of interest I'll list today's Tele faves that have finished fifth or worst at their last start.

I do not know if U.B's data includes those horses resuming from a spell but I have omitted them.

Wyong
7/6

Mudgee
6/3

Sun Coast
4/4
8/4

Kangaroo Island
5/1
8/2

Hamilton
6/2

Bandigo
1/5 (already run - won, paying $2.20 and $1.30)
7/13

It does not exclude them. It just looks at their last race.

U.B., I don't know if it makes a difference because I don't generally test resumers, but I don't lay them. Maybe my logic might support betting them.

Out of interest, today's result with the Tele faves wasn't too bad. There were 8 selections after a scratching for 3 winners returning $10.50 ($10.68 with Betfair S.P) for a 31% POT.