A method that picks winners not so favoured by the majority i.e. one that picks value selections that are over the odds.

A real market example wo work off for the explanation:

This is a 98% market.

2. HOT BUZZARD = 1.95 / 1.92

3. DANA TRAVIS = 5.8 / 5.5

4. REGAL GATE = 80.0 / 55.0

6. RYBENBROOK FLICK = 20.0 / 14.0

7. CAPTAIN KRUNCH = 15.0 / 13.5

8. PERFECT POWER = 6.0 / 5.5

Its a dog market I know but i collect hose as well and any market should be easy to do the explanation. So I would lay each as follows ?

2 = $56.41
3 = $18.10
4 = $1.25
6 = $5.00
7=$6.66
8=$17.00

So the total coming in to me is $104.42

If Fav wins I lose $110 - 104.42 = $5.58
If 2nd Fav wins I lose $105 =58c
If 3rd Fav wins I win = $2.42
If any other runner wins I win $4.42

Is this correct keeping in mind I have not taken into account commission.

Over 100 races lets assume favs win 30 times, 2nd favs 25 times and 3rd favs 15 times and all others 30 times.

30 Times I lose $5.58 = $167.40
25 Times I lose 58c = $14.50
15 Times I win $2.42 = $36.30
30 Times I win $4.42 = $132.60

This makes a loss of $13.

What am I missing with Marks method ?

A quick check reveals nothing wrong with your numbers UB.

I checked my figures from Last Saturday to tonight, I have bet on 80 races and averaged just over 102% per race, so in your example add a runner at say 30, that's an extra $3.33 in per race, times 100 = an extra $333 in, added to your loss of 13 = +320. Not to be sneezed at as the downside is limited. Alright we haven't taken off commission but given your example and the % I have achieved we are now well in profit. And these figures are for a base book of $100. I regularly make books for $1000 or more and when Black Caviar was running around I was holding in excess of $15000....and had no losers.

HI Darky,

thanks for your wisdom earlier, especially on the need to make sure the bank vault is stacked nicely before we take a spin = being 'overcapitalised'

LG


PS tarzan is alive and well after a bit of a break from the jungle and Cheetah is still cheeky!