And mine to you my dear chap.

Me thinks you are much more advanced than,
You are letting on about yourself L.G.

Good luck here anyway.

Cheers.

And mine to you my dear chap.

I seem to have a echo on my previous post.
A omen perhaps.

Why not post the findings of 'false' favourites that have been discussed in the past.

I'll kick it off .....

Favourite that was beaten favourite last start = 14% S/R (from memory)
I personally wouldn't touch a fav dropping back in distance either.

Appreciate your response Gary, but if punting is a puzzle.. I only have very few of the pieces in front of me at any 1 time!

Also helps to be respectful in a room / forum where there are many more knowledgeable members present who are way ahead of me?

Having said that, if sharing is the key and we all have something to contribute in here, then we may have untold riches to find together given some time, patience and respect

No sermon intended - just my humble opinion.


LG

Well said.

No worries L.G.


Your humble opinion is noted ( L.O.L.)

Cheers.

Hi Greystoke .
Thanks for the kind words.

If one were successful, say 67% of the time, separating the 1st & 2nd fav with 50% SR combined, the SR would be 33.50%+

The question of False fav ,is generally, a fav that did not win.
There will be seen many instances where a horse deserves to be Fav.
On form , it cant lose.
But we see many of these, cant lose Favs , fall in a hole for no explained reason.

__________________
Cheers.

In the same area - I just read somewhere "odds on favs win approx 55% of all races, whereas favourites priced at $2.70 or more(7/4) have a very poor historical win strike rate of only approx 18%.
Anyone got any stats to support or discredit this statement ?
cheers........ Mancunian

This may help.


All FAV'S
Races=55,162
Wins =17,172
S/rate=31%
Av tab=$2.80
Av s/p=$2.80
LOT=12.3%

Up to $3.0
Bets=31,014
Wins=11,842
S/rate=38.2
Div =$2.37.
LOT=9.6%

Over $3.0.
Bets=24,152
Wins=5,330
S/rate=22.0
Div= $3.80
LOT=17%

Over $4.0
Bets=7,168
Wins=1,282
S/rate=18.0
Div=$4.57
LOT=18.0

Over $5.0
Bets=2,677
Wins=432.
S/rate=16.0
Div=$5.05
LOT=18%

These haven't been updated for a while now,
But gives you reasonable idea of what the,
S/rate of Fav's are pertaining to price groups.

Cheers.