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  #1  
Old 18th April 2012, 10:16 AM
Dale Dale is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
While there (probably) is no doubt that the fav strike rate has been running higher than the norm over the last 8-9 months, is it also possible that with the plethora of information available nowadays that the ACTUAL best horse is being picked by more of the info and is then backed into favoritism by the public and therefore winning at a higher strike rate?

This would thereby drag the strike rate up and maybe the current 34% average strike rate may be the new norm.



Could be a number of reasons, my first thought is that perhaps its not so much the plethora of information but the plethora of weak low class races ie maidens which favorites have a sligthly better record in.

That and small fields as the product get more and more watered down with the over abundance of racing.
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  #2  
Old 18th April 2012, 12:28 PM
mattio mattio is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
mattio,

Just a heads up that the favs have been running slightly above their natural strike rate and pot for the last 8-9 months.

Any systems base don favs over this period are liekly to show better results then can be expected over the longer term.

I suggest you check the strike rate of just every fav and see what it has produced for your results. Is it at or above 34% ? If so then I suggest you take a wait a see approach for these systems.
Thanks for the heads up UB, I had always planned to see what happens over the next few months before considering betting the system, especially as the testing was done during a period when the racing wasn't the best going around. It will need to be tested during the carnivals and also the dreaded Winter before and true results can be had.

Cheers,

Matt.
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  #3  
Old 20th April 2012, 11:49 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Hi mattio,

I'm relatively new to these forums and haven't checked them in quite some time. I was reading through this thread and Dale's regarding system testing and it spiked my interest. I generally bet on sports (AFL, NRL, NBA) and have been doing so profitably posting my plays for free on my blog.

I'm looking at adding a racing element to my blog and have some ideas in mind for systems but haven't got the software to test etc. I'm wondering if I can possibly email you my ideas if you'd mind testing for me? Totally understand if you wouldn't like to

Looks like you / Dale may be onto something
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  #4  
Old 18th April 2012, 10:14 AM
Dale Dale is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mattio
Hi Dale,

Yeah I know but as Bhagwan says you can post a system up and the majority of people will stop using it the minute it hits a bad run and inevitably favourites will hit a bad run.

.



Yeah good point, I just worry about the proffesional takers who sit and wait for something like this. Genuine people will work for the results and go on the journey with you.
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