Hi Dale,

Yeah I know but as Bhagwan says you can post a system up and the majority of people will stop using it the minute it hits a bad run and inevitably favourites will hit a bad run.

I have already found another favourites system that gave me a 2% POT from over 800 selections in the 4 month test period so I am going to have some fun breaking that down.

I found a few nice filters around pre-post favourites that gave me a potential lay system over the same period with 90 selections and only 11 winners (all favourites too) for a 61% LOT at TAB prices.

Cheers,

Matt.

mattio,

Just a heads up that the favs have been running slightly above their natural strike rate and pot for the last 8-9 months.

Any systems base don favs over this period are liekly to show better results then can be expected over the longer term.

I suggest you check the strike rate of just every fav and see what it has produced for your results. Is it at or above 34% ? If so then I suggest you take a wait a see approach for these systems.

While there (probably) is no doubt that the fav strike rate has been running higher than the norm over the last 8-9 months, is it also possible that with the plethora of information available nowadays that the ACTUAL best horse is being picked by more of the info and is then backed into favoritism by the public and therefore winning at a higher strike rate?

This would thereby drag the strike rate up and maybe the current 34% average strike rate may be the new norm.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Yeah good point, I just worry about the proffesional takers who sit and wait for something like this. Genuine people will work for the results and go on the journey with you.

Could be a number of reasons, my first thought is that perhaps its not so much the plethora of information but the plethora of weak low class races ie maidens which favorites have a sligthly better record in.

That and small fields as the product get more and more watered down with the over abundance of racing.

Re the strike rate of favourites. For what it's worth, Felicity wrote in this forum in 2004:

From 1/8/91 to 31/7/01. All going, all fields, all trax. Dist. LESS THAN 1200 m.

61,402 Sole faves.
23,072 Wins (37.6%)
43,919 places (71.5%)

So, while we've come up with different reasons for the higher strike rate, it is still possible that 34% may be the new norm. And maybe even higher down the track (so to speak)?

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Also:

All races 1/8/91 to 31/7/01 ONLY criterion is race number. SOLE FAVOURITE.

R1....37.8%/72.8%
R2....36.6%/70.7%
R3....35.3%/69.4%
R4....34.4%/68.6%
R5....32.8%/66.5%
R6....31.5%/64.3%
R7....29.5%/60.6%
R8....28.2%/58.6%

For the same period 48,111 Maiden race Sole Faves gave 35.7%/69.4%

And:

As before but NO Slow or Heavy going and NO Maiden races. <=1200 m. Sole Fave.

R1...41.4%/76.9%
R2...39.5%/74.9%
R3...38.3%/72.9%
R4...36.8%/70.7%
R5...35.4%/69.6%
R6...33.1%/66.2%
R7...31.9%/62.2%
R8...30.1%/61.1%

Interesting stats there Bernie.
Thanks for sharing those findings.

There was a period in the UK where 70% of Favs were winning, week after week
It was weird .
Chrome Prince commented on it at the time.

But at the end of the year , Favs still averaged 30% across the board in total.
It all averaged out in the end.

That 30% could be considered as a constant in racing, because its been that figure for the past 100 years even with or without computers.

Its when one uses certain filters , that can increase the SR.

__________________
Cheers.