Luckyboy,

Yes I agree here.

Here are some observations I have made during my incomplete analysis to date which may help....

1. 3YO horses in general are bad investment propositions. Many are overrated and often go around at well under their true price. Much of the hype is regarding previous 2YO form which doesn't carry on as they get older....perhaps burnout???
Examples - Lovely Jubly, 0 wins this campaign and early on when resuming was very short prices.
Victory Vein, 0 wins since resuming and first up was around $2.80, since then has gone around at $7.00 and $6.90 - going on this preparation form should have been at least a couple of points better.

2.Many punters look to improve strike rate or only consider strike rate of certain factors, but the most important part is setting minimum and maximum price filters as a higher strike rate may not necessarily relate to profit.

3. Getting the right balance of factors is the secret and key, but you'll never have a perfect record - it's basically impossible.
The only way to end up on the positive side of the ledger is to set min. and max. prices along with a reasonable strike rate and profit on turnover.

4. The amount of past data worked with has to be substantial. I have been guilty many years ago of pouring over a month of Sportsman's trying to find a pattern or system. This will not work and is a waste of time unless you have access to at least one year of data (preferrably a lot more).
It's like trying to run a census on the city of Hobart and applying the results to the whole of Australia!

LB

Form Pro offers some thoughts and stats on this post

http://www.propun.com.au/forums/vie...ic=1950&forum=7

Fryingpan,

Many thanks for the prior post link. I was really interested in that % of winner in Top 5 Average Prizemoney.

Maybe that is my problem. Instead of looking for the Top 6 I should limit it to the Top 5. I'll run it over my data to see if it reduces the number of losing bets over the past few weeks.

Chrome Prince,

Many thanks for your insight. I thought the idea from 'formpro' reinforced your thoughts.

I have found a useful filter for identifying early career winners is to ensure that the career win strike rate is reflected or bettered in the horses past five starts.

This simple rule generally eliminates early achievers at 2 year old level that fail to go on.


LB

G'day LuckyBoy,

I would like to offer my advice/opinion as I believe that prizemoney factor can be very misleading, as outlined by other learned contributors. It is quite common for owners of ordinary horses to accept for races in which their horse has no realistic chance. They hope to run in the first five to receive very attractive prizemoney(although their horse may be beaten by up to 20 lengths). This distorts the real class of their horse and a form student must take this into account when assessing the all factors.
To assist you in refining the chances in any race I suggest looking at the following factors:
1) only consider any horse finishing within two lengths of the winner last start(no matter where it finished);
2) look for a horse down in class and field strength from that run;
3) look for a replacement jockey, especially if a well-credentialled jockey replaces an apprentice.
I am confident that these factors(filters)will prove more beneficial than the prizemoney factor).

I hope this may be of some assistance.

Cheers.

Xanadu,

Many thanks for your advice. I'm intrigued with your replacement jockey strategy.

Do you have any statistics to support this?

I have a two phased approach to bet selection.

Firstly, I have a statistical based system that narrows down the field size and then a qualitative based system accounting for other factors.

Here's my stat system:
1. Identify Top 6 Horses as per Friday paper prices;
2. Identify all horses ranked within four points of the top rated Zipform (Sportsman) horse;
3. Identify the Top Six Horses based on AVP.

In my analysis I have found these three filters have the highest correlation and statistically provide over 70% of winners.

I should add that I have program that pro-rates to a percentage, points 1 and 3.

Horses that meet the three above filters progress to a qualitative stage that scores each horse based on:

1. Last three start form;
2. Place %
3. Jockey
4. Barrier
5. Weight

Interestingly I do not look at distance. My analysis over 1500 races identifies distance as a 50/50 proposition. I tend to find a horse that is good at a 'distance' is easily recognised.

As I said in my original post, I was questioning the Top 6 AVP as a recent run of ordinary results was highlighted by a decrease in winners being from the Top 6 AVP.

My hypothesis is still inconclusive!


LB

No, I don't have any stats as it is more a case of observation over many years. All the top stables do it and most of the top jockeys now have managers to procure rides for them, so they are on the lookout for prospective city winners.
You can see the strategy-an apprentice or unfashionable rider gives the horse a good hit-out then when the horse is primed a perceived "more competent/fashionable" jockey is engaged. This strategy has worked at the provincials for years and will continue to do so as most of the top hoops do not frequent the provincials regularly. If they do, especially for only one ride, it is time to take notice. One of the top hoops is only engaged when a horse is considered good enough to be brought to town. It is just another factor in your form study and I just offer it for your consideration.

Cheers.

Xanadu,

A good logical thought process that sometimes is so obvious a lot of punters overlook it!

I appreciate your advice and I am always on the look out for assistance!


LB

Luckyboy,

I was perusing your previous posts and one comment "rang alarm bells" for me. You stated that you rely on the newspaper prepost markets as one of your selection filters. In one word, "DON'T."
The reason is that to the best of my knowledge,these markets are prepared by a journalist, on the orders of his/her sub-editor, to provide a market in the vicinity of 135-145%, and let's face it, some of these "journalists," wouldn't know which end of a horse to feed!
Therefore, I suggest that you avail yourself of some expertise provided by some contributors to this forum.
Contributors like Form-Pro and TESTAROSSA have provided some very accurate ratings/pricelines and I am sure that if you based your ideas around these and some other contributors(sorry, I haven't got space to name them all), your results would improve immediately.
I hope this may have been of some assistance.

Cheers.

Luckyboy,

In relation to my previous comment about change of "superior" jockey, I hope you noticed SR6 6.4.03 No 6 Star Of Florida ridden by Patrick Payne, replacing an accomplished jockey, R. M. Quinn-it ran second last start beaten 1.3lengths, and dropped in weight. It fitted almost all the criteria I outlined in recent posts and proved a profitable return for me-I hope you were on.(Although, after Payne's ride on Northerly yesterday, we would be very disappointed).

Cheers.

Xanadu,

Appreciate your advice. My use of pre-post prices is not from a value perspective, but a rating perspective.

I have found this filter to be a very good field 'culling' tool. In my analysis of the past year and half, I have found over 70% of winners come from the Top 6 pre-post rated horses.

LB

PS: Thanks for the jockey tip. It came to good effect today!