Aren't you at the end trying to get a confidence level in the POT continuing into the future.

Yes .... We all have different takes on Risk.

My filters are not for everyone and have more of a chance for the div to stand up c/w the more popular filters.

I find this tool to be useful

http://statpages.org/confint.html

Barny, for once I agree with you.

When designing my systems I try to get the maximum profit from the minimum number of selections. Let me clarify - if I run a system and get 200 selections for a profit of 50 units, I will always try to reduce the number of bets and get the same or similar profit. This is simply weeding out the crap and my current portfolio consists of 10 systems that average 30-40 selections a month. My best system over the past 8 months has give me 43 selections with a 76% S/R and 99% POT.

That being said I also have 2 automated trading systems running on Betfair that bet on every race that only have 1-2% POT - but the turnover is alot more than my other systems.

I would say that each method has merit but if you have systems with a small number of bets due to the amount of filters, make sure the filters are logical or else it will likely fail.

Cheers,

Mat.

This is true with systems because inherently punters look for profitable strategies and sometimes throw out the baby with the bath water.
Looking for returns, it is easy to overlook longer term profitable strategies.
Unfortunately for the most part, while looking for these profitable strategies, one is influenced by a spike in returns.
These spikes are often caused by pricing or result anomolies, so are often doomed. Example: that glossy mag.

Now and then one can come across gold.

The opening statement is so true of systems because an edge is not sustainable to the degree that results produce, because the edge cannot be that high or bookies would go broke. But again, sometimes one can identify a sniper situation and sit patiently in the prone position waiting for someone to ascend the bell tower. Take a slow breath and pull the trigger. It's likely that because the bets are so rare that anyone else has caught on, because the impact all round is insignficant to the opposition.

Where the opening statement is wrong (with all due respect and I know it doesn't cover what I'm about to write), is arbitrage. The more bets you have, the higher the POT, because the risk to reward ratio is so low.

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So very true mattio!