Prices at: 15:32:57, 15 Apr 2003 NSWTAB

No. Selection Win Place
002 Lonhro $3.00 $1.50
001 Defier $5.00 $2.00
016 Thorn Park $8.00 $2.75
004 Excellerator $11.00 $3.50
005 Dash for Cash $11.00 $3.50
008 Gordo $11.00 $3.50
010 Grand Armee $13.00 $4.00
003 Shogun Lodge $15.00 $4.50
013 Miss Zoe $21.00 $6.00
007 Scenic Peak $26.00 $7.25
006 Crawl $41.00 $11.00
009 Carael Boy $41.00 $11.00
011 Boreale $41.00 $11.00
018 Purple Groove $51.00 $13.50
014 Chairman's Choice $67.00 $17.50
017 Gentle Genius $81.00 $21.00
015 Cognac Trader $101.00 $26.00
012 Corporate Bruce $126.00 $32.25

On those prices listed above I would suggest that Gordo is the best value IMO although Lonhro would be my top pick.

Does any else have any thoughts on how these prepost markets can be distorted by the agencies standing to lose heaps given a certain result in doubles or straight out bets. A case in point is Niello from last week. He was as short as 4.00 on sportsbet during the week but got out to about 8.00 on Sat. I wonder if Lonhro will be available @ a better price when the betting is opened on Sat. To counter this is the fact that he is probably a true favourite whereas Niello clearly wasn't and was based solely on hype. Given, there is a certain amount of hype about Lonhro, but the same could be said for a number of horses in this race. Last year Sunline was around 3.80 in the betting before firming to start 2.90 Might we see 3.50 or 4.00 about Lonhro as I believe this is probably close to his true price.

If Lonhro gets out to around $4.00, and I doubt it, I'll be having a HUGE plunge on him for the place as well.

Hope it pays off and bad luck does not beat him.

Fields like this are notoriously a recipe for bumping, helter skelter affairs, where often the luckiest (not the best) horse wins.

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In terms of my pure speed and pace figures a quick glance without any real form study shows:

Lonhro 108+ clearly the pick of the bunch, Boreal 107 if he can repeat his Villiers run (a big ask)
Shogun Lodge 106
Defier 106
Grand Armee 105 (with some upside from weight relief)
Gordo 105
Pruple Groove 104
Thorn Park 104
Dash for Cash 103

Some of the others like Scenic Peak are capable of producing ratings good enough to win but not on a consistent basis.


No to get a little controversial....I'm willing to take on Defier. My figures suggest he isn't likely to be as effective over 1600m with a big weight and solid pace. Plenty may disagree and he may well make a fool of me and win by 3 lengths, but i'm willing to risk him!

Thorn Park is the other I think is suspect in the pressure cooker of a group 1 mile, even well down in the weights. I'm willing to take him on as well.

Lonhro is clearly the one to beat, but looking at the longer priced brigade the value that stands out to me is Boreale and Purple Groove.

Boreale's win in the Villiers last December was huge. The early pace was fast and he showed he could handle that pressure and still run very good time. I have a big question about his fitness and current form but J Hawkes can get the less fancied ones to run a big race on the day. He produced Boreale to win the VIlliers 2nd up last time. He's well down in the weights here and while I don't think he's as good at Lonhro or Defier, he is 10 times the price.

Purple Groove was the run of the day in the Coolmore. The early pace was very slow and she was the only horse to make big ground in the race. The leaders were going very quick in the run home and her effort to make so much ground shows she has some serious speed. Last Spring she ran 2nd to Miss Zoe on Derby Day (who was flying at the time) and then ran a close up 4th in the G1 Emirates over 1600m. That combined with her run in the Coolmore makes me think she has developed into a good quality mare. She's pretty good value at $51, especially if she can get some pace on and it happens to rain (which looks possible this week).

Overall an interesting race. Nothing like sticking your neck out and be willing to risk 2 of the top 3 favourites. Time will tell!

Do like the current odds on offer for the following:

Excellerator $11.00 $3.50 * My top pick at this stage
Dash for Cash $11.00 $3.50
Gordo $11.00 $3.50
Shogun Lodge $15.00 $4.50
Miss Zoe $21.00 $6.00
Scenic Peak $26.00 $7.25
Crawl $41.00 $11.00

Lonhro & Defier are obviously big chances, but a bit too short currently to attract my money

Lonhro $3.00 $1.50
Defier $5.00 $2.00

If I recall correctly Lonhro was weighted on 56kg in this race last year but didn't run. As a 3yr old that was 0.5kg over WFA this year he is carrying 0.5kg under WFA. In this time he has won 4xG1, 3xG2, 1G3. Admittedly the past few wins were after weights were released and he could not be penalised but still.

By way of comparison Defier had 51.5kg last year -6.5WFA and he now carries 58kg (WFA) that is he got penalised 6.5kg for winning 2 G1 and 2 G2. Compared with Lonhro who effectively went back 1kg for his wins. This means one of a couple of things: Lonhro is in light this year; Lonhro was terribly handicapped last year and the handicapper has virtually admitted it by this years figures.

Another point is that Defier is up 1.5kg on last years Epsom despite not having won since and the fact that this is a better field.

Getting to the point (eventually) I would agree with ossuldj in potting Defier, @ the current price he is terrible value.

Does this make him a good thing?

Betty, I agree with you about the short prices for favourites. Obviously they are the ones to beat, but in this sort of race where I'm struggling to choose between two or threee short ones (plus I have Defier double with Polar Success at $61 so no need to back again), I'm going to take several longer priced shots, and Defier wins then I will be very happy anyway, and if Lohnro wins (and probably will) won't shed too many tears. Still on a high after Slipper.

This way I can cheer a for a few horses in the race and my outlay will be much smaller. I'm going to back e/w -

Scenic Peak
Shogun Lodge
Purple Groove
Grand Armee
Gentle Genius

Good luck to all having a go,
Cheers,
Cosmo

[ This Message was edited by: Cosmo on 2003-04-16 02:14 ]

Neck on the block time...I'll be laying Lonhro, WFA horse who hasn't beaten much, this is his big test. Hats off to him if he can win though.

Prices at: 16:25:38, 16 Apr 2003 NSWTAB
No. Selection Win Place
002 Lonhro $3.00 $1.50
001 Defier $5.00 $2.00
016 Thorn Park $8.00 $2.75
004 Excellerator $11.00 $3.50
005 Dash for Cash $11.00 $3.50
008 Gordo $11.00 $3.50
010 Grand Armee $13.00 $4.00
003 Shogun Lodge $15.00 $4.50
013 Miss Zoe $21.00 $6.00
007 Scenic Peak $26.00 $7.25
006 Crawl $41.00 $11.00
009 Carael Boy $41.00 $11.00
011 Boreale $41.00 $11.00
018 Purple Groove $41.00 $11.00
014 Chairman's Choice $67.00 $17.50
017 Gentle Genius $81.00 $21.00
015 Cognac Trader $101.00 $26.00
012 Corporate Bruce $126.00 $32.25

DEFIER - LONHRO - SHOGUN LODGE - DASH FOR CASH*

Dash For Cash ew

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[ This Message was edited by: Redcraze on 2003-04-17 10:43 ]