I see nothing on here from the "new breed" that actually dissects the form of the horse, analyses it's form (without resorting to paid ratings), looks at training methods, looks at all the variables, investigates handicapping methods ..... They play the odds, they may as well go to the casino or play black jack against Warnie ..... And the downside for these stats based "new breed" is that they will fail to see their system lacks logic, which is the No. 1 criteria for any successful system

Plugged in all the top ones Vortech combining Market price and SP as the one entry .....

718 seln's
302 winners
LOT 15.13%

I actually thought it might have been worse but it proves again that the popular filters lead to an overbet horse. That's logical !! Everyone loves a winner !!! (Top S/R), but that's not what this caper is all about Vortech .....

Top 3

23,255 seln's
6,525 winners
LOT 16.16%

I'm seeing a lot of LOT 15%.
If I put $1 on every horse in every Race I will end up with LOT of 15% at the end of the week.

Let's say 15% is the take-out ..... The key to winning is to identify races where the bookies / TAB ( as a direct result of the pool) have a few horses shorter than their true chances because of the horses popularity in systems / stables / handicapping / methods / late mail / ratings / whatever ..... It stands to reason that the others are over their true odds / chances of winning and some may be over by 200%+ ..... These are the ones that will give you a consistent long term profit ..... But you need skill to identify them and balls to back 'em.

Its a concept not built around single bets.

The number of horses selected is based around the calculations of the market percentages of each race

Instead of using favourites I was trying to identify another variable to use with similar strike rate

That's a bit rich given that like you, some of us have also studied the methods from the 'old masters' on here and found much merit in them

EG wespmip1's golden gem which I have tagged 'WES', PPM from Darky, CPOO(you tell me?).. need I go on?

TO someone like me, numbers and patterns are the most interesting 'puzzle' there is in life, a knee-up in the right direction by an 'old hand' every now also helps!


LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

You've confirmed my point exactly, you like numbers and patterns.

Perhaps that works in your head-world Barny, but not necessarily in mine.

What I was trying to say is that I am open to a number of different approaches, including yours ie I do not discount something I do not understand upfront or something which doesn't fit neatly into my preferred way of thinking

Can you say the same thing?

LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

You like numbers and patterns LG, and I've found a method to select races / selections, that take advantage of the vast majority that think the same as you do, and reap the rewards of the massive overs for a horse that has a chance.

I used to be open to a number of different approaches, but funnily enough (and I know you'll understand this) they all ended up as popular approaches, and far earlier for me to be able take advantage of them. Sound familiar ??

I avoid the common approach now .....

Well said your Lordship.

Every day we seel excellent Free Racing sites like r+s ,Inracing etc with their asessed prices.

If one were to just take every horse asessed to $11 and only bet those higher than their asessed price we would do well over the long term.

How simple is that - around 20 minutes for both sites to get the prices and another 10 minutes to obtain the best prices at race time.

Its not good for the set and forget type of punter but Professional betting involves getting best price - A fulltime position.

I,ve mentioned this many many times - No professional EVER bets 1 horse as there are AlWAYS 2 or more chances in ANY race.

On my Daily thread I look for races that involve 5 or 6 Chances.

And the beauty of it is that the best Professionals in the business have done the work for us.

Betting 1 horse is ok for a bit of fun but to do it professionaly will only lead to the poorhouse.

Cheers
darky