FWIW
this is how i go about it.
1. I have designed my data capture so that it can easily be tested. Each starter holds about 300 pieces of information in its form that can be easily filtered out.
2. To sustain in this business you need a very user friendly system and approach.
3. Believe me the punting gods are very cruel and the minute you can’t be bothered and stop because you have had a bad day is the moment the big results is next in line. It has happened to me more than once where I can’t be stuffed putting the Europe night bets on only to get up in the morning and see 3 x 20-1 shots got up. It happened yesterday – near nil return in the day - $2.5k down – had a selection at Limerick – reluctantly put 120 on it and lo and behold – at 12.50AM it wins at $32.40. So to have something that works easy is imperative.
4. The results are incorporated into the data after the race has been completed. both the SP , the dividends and the beaten lengths – 0 lengths for the winner
5. Every horse race covered by Tattsbet is for the last 2 years is in the data base
6. When I have an idea I want to test I break my data into 3 data sets. I massage data set 1 as much as I like until I get a winning formula
7. I then test with absolutely no changes in data set 2. If it’s OK I go to data set3
8. I am always on the lookout for /wary of long priced winners that make it look good.
9. I want to see firstly a continued strike rate and secondly same or better POT.
10. Even after that I’ll let it run for another 6 months before I use my own money
11. I try to look where no-body else might be looking- to improve my price.
12. The all horserace average SP of the winner is around $7.80 and has been for at least the last 25 years that I can see- thus every horse in every race has some chance – by not concentrating on the obvious you improve your dividend.
13. Understanding of probability and “run of outs (‘ROO’)” is important. If you have a 12% SR a ROO of 20 is NOT uncommon.
14. Your bank needs to be about 5000 divided by your SR. so for 12% you need 5000/12 = 416x etc.

good luck every body

aussielong

Hi Aussielongboat,

Looks like you've got it together!

Thanks for such a detailed insight into both your testing and punting approach.

I wish you the best of luck!!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Where are the best places to get hold of the following ....
A: a database
B: system developing / system testing tools

If each selection was staked to price say to take $100 50-1 $2 9-1 $10 4-1 $20 and so on and if it still made a profit I could not see why it should fail in the future if back tested for any length of time I would give it a good chance of success.

Am I missing the point.

only if rigorously back tested on fresh data - bookmakers love people with data bases, computers and back testing.

a nip here a tuck there and lo and behold you have discovered the path to eternal riches - until you do it in real time with your hard earned.

"but it all looked so logical - what could have happened" you say and then

I have filing cabinets of "good" logical sensible systems that won for 2-3 years and then started a slide and never came back.

And i mean never came back as in over 10 years of later testing.

Giday Aussielongboat.

What if all successful systems have bright patches or clear winning runs now and then (timing being variable and unpredictable) and no amount of back testing can change this.. what then?

If this were the case, could we allow for this via 3 step process...

1. continue to rigorously search for successful systems (rather than test them ad finitum to see if they will run hot until eternity?)
2. track them and understand / detect when they are 'on' and when they are 'off', coming on and coming off etc
3. create a portfolio of these and run them together eg some on, some off, others warming up or cooling down etc to increase activity and decrease likelihood of giving it all back to the bookie, tote, corporate, tom etc etc

Just my thoughts.

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

my view is that if it back tested over a couple of sets of fresh data and it looks OK then it is probabaly OK - i mean what else could you do



probably do both -search and monitor - main edge here is to build an approach where you can data gather, test and monitor efficiently. i run 180 concurrent on every horse race covered by tattsbet and tabulate the results automatically. 1 button macro.

If you could do that regularly you would be set for life and would avoid the gamblers curse - run of outs.
If you avoid the run of outs - you don't destroy your bank, your POT and/or your sanity.

Probably the most difficult pursuit of all
IMHO


that's pretty similia to what I do now - run about 10 different approaches concurrently - hoping that on average i will be in front.
as far as warming up or cooling down etc. i have no idea - they either win or they lose - doesn't seem to be, as far as i can detect so far, that it is that logical or organised.

It just happens or it doesn't happen.

The only thing i have noticed is that if i am going a bit average i usually get some long priced place getters - i.e $8+ for place dividend before i get some recovery winners. i got 3 yesterday so i am a bit chirpy for today.
LOL

what i have also learned so far is that it is "darkest before the dawn" meaning that just when you give up you are on the eve of a recovery - with one BIG proviso - that you are using a tested and proven approach - otherwise it is just down , down and down again and you can end up in debtors prison or the asylum or both.




no sweat all good

Lots to chew over here Aussie... some brilliant input, thanks.

You being a 'macro maestro' .. to track when systems are on / off / coming good / turning down etc, could it be a simple ss to auto-track SR and watch / learn from the patterns to detect high / low / turning points etc? Could this assist with avoiding the holy crap of punting = a long series of outs??

You seem to already have an idea of one such turning point eg long price place getters which seems to lead / indicate that recovery winners are close by.

Also, have been meaning to ask regards your 1 button macro that churns and crunches thru 180 concurrent variables - why so many??

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Lord have a read of the thread "Very Serious Question" around 13th March 2011.

It might be a start to what you are looking for

Lord,

I've recently started looking at Kelly Critereon for staking based on my 'edge' for overlay's. Not sure if others have used it before or have something against it but seems like a logical way of staking and I read in an Alan Woods article that it was how his computer betting company did their staking. I also know its used quite frequently by sports bettors on american sports once they've built a model that has a consistent edge.