So UB has turned a losing level stakes system into a winning one. It can be done. The next statement by UB though is also very important to consider.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

A bloke would be here for a million years reading all those posts and verifying the truth in them , if it was even possible.

I'll stick with what Raven said.

And I will refrain from posting for a while.
There is no point.
Punters are a stubborn lot and just won't be told.
ME INCLUDED.

Think I actually get this now - having banged my head up against multiple threads over the last week, examining the various viewpoints, discussions, arguments, rants, watching individuals openly berate themselves in the corner of a room (including myself)...

Synopsis as follows:
1. A system that generates a LOT at LS will eventually break the bank, no matter what staking strategy is applied

2 Any form of progressive staking plan is just a multiple of betting at level stakes i.e. it will add leverage to the upside = magnify the gains, but will also ramp up the the downside risk i.e. ramp up the losses

3. Human psychology with it's inbuilt bias towards seeking (and expecting) positive outcomes suggests that many of us would prefer to believe that LOT to POT / wine to water is possible and also that it is within our power to make this happen, despite the proof / maths / stats / any cold-hard logic put in front of us.

4. None of us have unlimited resources to keep feeding the increasing stake requirement - even if we did, finite market pools and an individual's reduced appetite for taking on increasing risk would make a positive outcome unlikely

5. Cheating the hangman = coming out ahead is still possible over the short term / initial period however, but this will depend largely on (a) lady luck and (b) a small LOT at Level Stakes to begin with of say 5-10% = easier to flip (or swing*) into a POT scenario eg choosing where to place the initial bet


Just my thoughts.


Cheers LG

* The aha moment for me? I 'saw' a pendulum swinging gently, but with a slight bias to the left or right.. and equated this to betting at level stakes for a small POT or LOT. Now add some energy to it = a progressive staking system and depending on where you are standing (and when?), you might be witnessing a large(r) gain or large(r) loss. If one is lucky / clever / organised enough in advance to find himself on the 'right' side of a big swing at a given point in time, and has the fortitude to stop the pendulum in mid air = quit while still in POT territory (a BOT would make this easier?), then at that precise point in time they have converted a loosing system into a winner.

This being possible over the short-medium term, if one is prepared to walk away from a temporary winning position by :

(a) giving up on the illusion of a much bigger outcome to come
(b) correctly assessing the reality that to continue playing equates to 100% certainty that the pendulum string would end up tightly around one's neck = Impossible to make a profit on turnover over the longer run, for the reasons given above.

Now, I reckon it's about time I took myself over to the corner of the room and started berating myself... eh beton?!! More gin please, hold the tonic.

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

" A system that generates a LOT at LS will eventually break the bank "

A system that shows a profit on turnover can also break the bank. It just depends where the winners fall.
Chasing losses is the bane of most punters lives. (including mine I may add, sad but true).

__________________
Jose'.

How very true. Have given up on chasing losses however. Time is better spent fine tuning the selection process, perhaps?

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Spot on LG.
Getting the head in the right spot is the key IMHO.
Which is something that I shall work on this year.

__________________
Jose'.