OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

27th January 2013, 07:57 PM

moeee

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Melbourne

Posts: 5,359

Quote:

Originally Posted by Star

providing I can get a strike rate of 5% I do not need a zillion winners, Just one in twenty.

Pete

If I was to go without a Winner for 20 races , I would simply inflammate myself ( that thing where you poor petrol over yourself then ignite it)

But what you say is true Star - just doesn't suit me.

27th January 2013, 07:31 PM

SpeedyBen

Member

Join Date: Oct 2012

Posts: 465

Quote:

Originally Posted by Star

Here is another maxim I have difficulty with. My query is, how can we quantify what is the true odds of a horse in a race is.

Let's say that we are in the in, and we know our horse is going well, this is the race. we have the right jockey ( we think ) the price is right and the Bank Manager gives us his blessing.

But, in this race, this same senario is being played out in possibly up to six to eight stables in a fourteen horse or so field.

Their is only one winner. I am firming in my thinking that if on form only two horses should win, but I expect their are at least four others that might, then taking under the odds might well be close to $6 or $7 dollars otherwise we are kidding ourselves.

If others disagree, I would like to hear the arguments against. At the moment that is my view, mind you, next week it might change.

Pete

When I was attending meetings I'd often have someone come up to me and say " The owner of Peter Pan says his horse is a certainty today ". My question would always be "What do the owners of the other 11 horses say about theirs?"

27th January 2013, 08:01 PM

Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline

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Join Date: Mar 2012

Posts: 1,227

Or what did the trainers say about their horse or the others?

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

25th January 2013, 05:50 PM

evajb001

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Join Date: Oct 2009

Posts: 451

Here's my contribution, eliminate any horse that has not won in the conditions. Unfortunately this means that you can't decide on whether you bet or not until not long before the race but all the statistics i've looked at in my endeavors to find a profitable system show that if a horse hasn't ran or won in the conditions previously theres a good chance it wont win this time around. Obviously horses have to win in conditions at some stage to meet this rule but as I generally do my ratings on quality races with horses that have had at least 3-4 starts it seems to work quite well.

25th January 2013, 06:47 PM

Vortech

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Posts: n/a

Would you be looking at rules to improve strike rate or return?

Interesting Facts: 57% of winning horses finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in previous race.

71% of winners were 4 or older
76% of winners were male
73% of winners raced within previous 14 days
78% of winners carried the same weight or less at their last race
84% of winners ran in the same class or lower at their last race
49% of winners ran the same distance as last start
63% of winners finished within 2L last start

But the problem here is in combination they don't necessarily improve or if you bet outside these variable ranges you can often find so much more value.

Last edited by Vortech : 25th January 2013 at 06:52 PM.

25th January 2013, 07:09 PM

Star

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Join Date: Dec 2009

Posts: 217

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barny

This Follow The Top 10 Sires thread is an absolute beaut and has inspired me to start this thread. I want to develop a list, preferably manageable when doing form, of say 10 rules to eliminate a horse. I've suggested only applying the rule to a horse because we could have 10 rules to eliminate a race before we even get started on the horse.

I have read a book called Systems By Design by Ian Barns that has 33 eliminating rules !! Thirty Three !! But the book is quite good.

My number one rule is not to back any horse second up. For more years than I can remember I've tested second up as I thought with a terrible run first up you could get any old price on the basis that punters might have thought the horse hasn't come up this time in. To indicate just how much work I went to, I developed a list of over 100 reasons given by trainers and media as to why a certain horse got beaten, it was primarily aimed at a horse flopping first up. Anecdotal evidence suggests that in all forms of sporting endeavours, second up usually produces a flat run. AFL footallers are a prime example.

So: Eliminate any horse second up.

If you don't agree with this rule, fire up !!!!!!!!

A few years ago, I would agree totally. Today, I am not so sure. I think we might have to now factor in the trainer and his training set up.

Most trainers have become more scientific, have better facilities and have better access to the actual physiolgy of the horse and its recovery from stress which includes ,racing, training and viruses.

A horses ability to recover after a first up run depends on its state of fitness going into that first race. Years ago most trainers used races to get their horses fit, today, only the less sophisticated do that or those trainers that do not have full facilities available to them.

The top and better trainers have all their horses pre trained for them, so when they arrive in the stable they are fit and ready to race. Their recovery rate is the same or maybe slightly less then a race fit horse. So, by being a little bit patient for the second up the horse will come to hand a lot quicker.

Because of a different training stratergy then years ago, horses come to hand a lot quicker. Statistics might prove me wrong, but I am fairly confident I am on the right track.

Pete

25th January 2013, 07:20 PM

Luxinterior Luxinterior is offline

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Join Date: May 2012

Posts: 26

I agree Star, especially in Sydney.
More so now than in the past, Sydney trained horses seem to have more trials leading to their first up run and are therefore fitter when having their second up run.
Following the patterns of certain stables may be the key here.

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