Hi Eva.

I actually rang Greg Carpenter (Chief handicapper V.R.C.) on the matter of,
Of how he and his team split field size, and distances, when assessing form and weights a few months ago, he was only to happy to discuss the issues.
This is how they do it.

Field Size.

=<8=Small.
9-12= Medium
13=> Large.

Distance.

=<1300.
1301-1800
1801-2200
2201=>

I split all my ratings into these field/sizes and distances when and where applicable.

Hope this helps.

Cheers.
Garyf.

The problem with breaking the stats down too much is that your sample size becomes greatly diminished.

I agree with evajb001, Heavy tracks produce a high strike rate of favourites because proven wet performers get heavily backed, plus there are usually a wad of scratchings which increase their chances.

Average field size has a lot to do with the favourite strike rate at each track, although there are slight variances.

What is an advantage is watching for track downgradings during the meeting and dead3 or slow tracks as trainers often run the gauntlet anyway, where they would scratch if it were Heavy.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/12/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

garyf,

The field size information is particularly helpful as I haven't really taken that into my account with my ratings yet. I think there's possibly some merit in adjusting staking based on field size but will have to run some tests once I have more data recorded.

In terms of the distances thats also very useful. I recently went through the process of giving my ratings an overhaul based on information i'd read on these forums. I've always put an emphasis on track conditions (Good/Dead/Slow/Heavy) but i've also combined this with distance of the race now to be more specific with my ratings. In particular I use this data for my fitness, barrier and turn variables the most. The distance splits I use in combination with track conditions are as follows:

<1101
1101-1201
1201-1401
1401-1601
1601-1801
1801-2201

For distances over 2201 i've found barrier/turn stats are negligble and apply my 1801-2201 variables for fitness.

CP,

Agree that breaking down stats too much can harm the sample size, i'd say everything still warrants investigation (if you have the time) but its important to be mindful of reading too much into small sample sizes.

In reference to track conditions changing throughout a day this is why my spreadsheet breaks my ratings down based on Good, Dead, Slow, Heavy. So that way if conditions change I can apply my ratings based on the given track conditions not just a generic rating for all conditions. Unfortunately this means I have to place my backs/lays manually before each race but I find doing it this way is more beneficial then a generic rating. Would be nice to find a bot that places bets based on track conditions.

You're on the right track Eva.


One huge thing with ratings be they free or your own is this.

Always split them into.

State.

Then whether the track in that state is.

Country.
Metropolitan.
Provincial.

This is the one biggest factor i have found in identifying,
In whether to bet or not.

With ratings it amazes me how what is good for say one state,
Is not for the other.

Today i will look at 3 venues divided like this.

Sale=(Vic Prov)
Goulburn= (Syd/Country)
R/Hampton=(Qld/Country).

This works a treat with mine, it may be different with other peoples ratings.

The order of your ratings will also come into play, with the above criteria,
As will minimum and maximum prices and the filters you posted.

Cheers.
Garyf.

Garyf, not sure if your happy to share or not but i'm interested in how you use state, metro, prov, country etc to aid in your process. Can discuss via email if you wish.

In terms of my fitness variable I haven't taken into account state etc, i've just used distance, conditions and runs this prep. However in terms of the barrier and turn variables i've used venue and distance.

For example all my barrier and turn stats for Flemington and specific to the stats recorded at flemington for distance ranges i posted above. If I don't have the stats recorded for a venue i've just been using the averages of all venues I do have recorded.

In my previous ventures with ratings I had noticed quite a difference between venues however I was recording all my bets in terms of tatts code (MR, VR, AR etc) so unfortunately for SA and WA a race at morphettville for example was recorded with the same code as a race at Port Lincoln. I'm not sure I can record it any other way with how my spreadsheet is formatted but as I said, still very interested in how you apply those details.

Here is an example of my format.

Victoria.

M/VALLEY
S/HILLSIDE
S/LAKESIDE
C/FIELD.
F/TON.

These tracks where my bets were, would be listed on my spreadsheet.
Next to those tracks would be a code.

Code= V/M meaning all these tracks were VICT-METRO.

Victoria.

BALL.
BEND.
CRAN.
GEEL+SYNTH.
WARRNAMBOOL.
MORN.
SEYM.
BENALLA.
KYNE.
MOE.
PAKEN
SALE
SW/HILL.
WERRIB.
Y/VALLEY
KILM.

These are Victorian Provincial tracks so would be coded on,
My spreadsheet as = V/P

Everything else in Victoria i class as Victoria Country = V/C.

These are your tracks like Ararat, Echuca, Wangaratta, Tatura, etc.

I do the same for SYD.ADEL,QLD. tracks.

I don't bet on Night Meetings, or P/Holiday meetings.

When i want to see how my ratings perform on,
Victoria Provincial tracks i just go to sort and filter code = V/P ,
And all those tracks appear i can then compare various filters to V/M or V/C etc.

You can put an insert column, mark it as code, and do the same thing,
Mine are these.

A/C
A/M
A/P

Q/C
Q/M
Q/P

S/C
S/M
S/P

V/C
V/M
V/P.

Hope this helps

Cheers.
Garyf.

What i would do then is something like this.


Based on my previous 2 posts.

Top rated =V/M
=<8 F/SIZE.
=<1300 DIST

Same top/rated.
9-12 F/SIZE
=<1300

Same top rated.
13=> F/SIZE
=<1300

You can then do a SYD/CNTRY using the same field/size distance etc.

Then experiment with the other distances field/sizes i mentioned earlier,
In different places .

This is only one set of filters, i use many others as well,
But i won't go to a filter until i have established a ,
STATE.
C-M-P first.

For me this makes the sorting out procedure easier.

You must have a selection(s) rating whatever it be 1st
For easier distribution.

Others may disagree, its what works for me, and has been for many years.

Cheers.
Garyf.

When testing with my previous posts you will find that,

Different sets of selections will deliver different strike/rates,
With different filters.

EG.

1-4 NEURALS.
1-4 D/SCOTT.
1-4 A.A.P PREPOST.
1-4 U/TAB RATINGS.

All these free ratings will throw up various strike/rates,
Profit/loss margins depending on the order of the selection(s)
And the filter(s) used.

Enough from me on this, someone elses turn now.

Cheers.
Garyf.

Yup that helps garyf, so over time you can see any trends and bet/not bet or stake accordingly.

I might start doing the same with regards to my ratings now, although would take some time before the data becomes meaningful. I guess it's important to record the actual conditions/variables of the race to use in filtering. Ratings take care of the horse/jockey/trainer side of things but have to be mindful of how well those ratings reply to specific venues, distances, conditions and field size.

Thanks for the reply and explanation.

EXACTLY.

Cheers.