Races with horses resuming from a spell and a price > $30 are races to AVOID? Fact or Fiction?

A: FACT

Can anyone be sure what a fresh horse can do? Especially young maturing horses.

You might ask, "why do this excercise, $30+ horses hardly win.."
From my limited database I believe the strike rate of horses with a BF SP of $30+ is 5% (happy to be corrected) So if we're Dutch Backing horses < BF $30, provided we can achieve a 8 -10% profit for the dutch, let's do the sums based on $100 liability:

1000 races, win 95%, equals 950 x 'say' $9 profit = $8,550 less commission = $7,994 nett. Lost 50 races (5%) = $5,000. Total nett profit $2,994 or 2.99% POT.
Now with what we can learn about races to avoid betting on, if we were able to filter out 20% of losing races our results look like this:
1000 races, win 96%, equals 960 x $9 profit = $8,640 less commission = $8,078 nett. Lost 40 (4%) = $4,000. Total nett profit $4,078 or 4.08% POT.
Our POT has increased a massive 33% for a 1% increase in strike rate or 20% less losing races!
The power of 1%, how it can make a difference.
RP

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These one's only come round once in awhile, races where the TAB 1st fav has a fixed price > $6.90. there was only one yesterday, Flemington R5. Ist fav TAB Fixed price $7.50.
The stats I have suggest that the winner has NEVER been outside the top 8. The BF Back prices were:
8.8, 9, 10, 10, 10.5, 12.5, 13, 14

The winner was the $9 horse

Dutch these for a 34% profit.
RP

Onya RP. I decided to seriously evaluate what longshot first starters and first uppers can do. Having been hit by them a few times when evaluating the noorals I knew that they popped up on a semi regular basis. I set my bot up to back all such horses if 30+ was available 10 seconds before the jump. There were 36 losers before the first winner this morning. My bot backed it at $110. Hooblodyray!
My first ever 100/1 winner.