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  #1  
Old 28th May 2013, 06:20 PM
stugots stugots is offline
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Darkydog, please let me know if these are selections or not, cheers pal.


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  #2  
Old 28th May 2013, 12:07 PM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
The Rule.
Any horse that ran 33 or 44 in past 2 starts in current campaign.
Results 19/5 - 27/5
102 Bets/ 1 win @$2.45.

Using "The Rule" over 12 years.

35,742 occurences. 13.5% Win Strike Rate. 86.5% Lay Rate. Average Win Price (AAP) $5.33.

Regards,
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  #3  
Old 28th May 2013, 12:29 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Using "The Rule" over 12 years.

35,742 occurences. 13.5% Win Strike Rate. 86.5% Lay Rate. Average Win Price (AAP) $5.33.

Regards,
So, about 3000 selections per year with a lay profit of about 15% at estimated BF prices. Not bad.
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  #4  
Old 28th May 2013, 12:42 PM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Using "The Rule" over 12 years.

35,742 occurences. 13.5% Win Strike Rate. 86.5% Lay Rate. Average Win Price (AAP) $5.33.

Regards,
Demodocus,
You've told us what the Average Win price is for the 4,825 times the selection Won. What is the average Lay price for the 30,916 times it lost? OR is $5.33 the average price (What, Tote, BF, SP ??) for all 35,742 horses?
Interested to know as it might refine Speedy's profit downwards.
RP
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  #5  
Old 28th May 2013, 01:30 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
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I added a dollar to the 5.33, RP to do the lay calc. Not enough, you feel?
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  #6  
Old 28th May 2013, 01:45 PM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedyBen
I added a dollar to the 5.33, RP to do the lay calc. Not enough, you feel?
Well Speedy, the "Twin 2" excercise I did this morning had horses in a range from $2.16 - $360 ? Just don't take a mortgage out to fund this one just yet! See if we get any clarification.
RP
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  #7  
Old 28th May 2013, 01:48 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
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Talking

I wasn't planning to follow this one, my friend, but your concern for me is touching.
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  #8  
Old 28th May 2013, 02:30 PM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Demodocus,
What is the average Lay price for the 30,916 times it lost? OR is $5.33 the average price (What, Tote, BF, SP ??) for all 35,742 horses?
Interested to know as it might refine Speedy's profit downwards.
RP

The Average AAP Price for the selections that WON is $5.33

The Average AAP Price for the selections that LOST is $11.35

The Average AAP Price for ALL selections is $10.54

Regards.
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  #9  
Old 28th May 2013, 02:43 PM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
The Average AAP Price for the selections that WON is $5.33

The Average AAP Price for the selections that LOST is $11.35

The Average AAP Price for ALL selections is $10.54

Regards.
So they're Tote prices, we'll call the Tote $11.35 as BF Lay price $13 = $7.79 x 30,917 = $240,894 IN
less 4,825 x $100 L = $482,500 OUT!
A loss of $241,606.

This one's not for the "Seven Squared Plan".......lol, RP
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  #10  
Old 28th May 2013, 03:34 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Thumbs up

3/3 successes as usual today.
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