OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

22nd January 2014, 01:22 PM

blackdog1

Member

Join Date: Aug 2013

Posts: 164

Quote:

Originally Posted by aussielongboat

overall tab dividends on the winners- yes everybody says that ( they thought they would be shorter) - but it has been near the same number for at least 20 years - probably longer

same goes for harness average divs. everyone thinks it's a lot lower than it actually is. All they remember is the $1.1 wunner but there are a lot of higher ones too.

22nd January 2014, 12:42 PM

aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline

Member

Join Date: Nov 2010

Posts: 258

Quote:

Originally Posted by beton

Point of interest would be if you took the >$30 winners out. Although they should not distort the results too much. These figures are consistent to 3rd -4th fav. Thanks for posting this.

not much change really - apart from being harder to read

<=$30 divi
total yr starters Wprice % of TOT
2054 2014 2003 $6.55 97.5%
31140 2013 30341 $6.78 97.4%
26464 2012 25646 $6.93 96.9%
20867 2011 20178 $7.07 96.7%
80525 Grand Total 78168 $6.90 97.1%

>30 divi
yr starters Wprice
2054 2014 51 $41.46 2.5%
31140 2013 799 $44.51 2.6%
26464 2012 818 $46.09 3.1%
20867 2011 689 $45.89 3.3%
80525 Grand Total 2357 $45.40 2.9%

22nd January 2014, 01:05 PM

beton

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 589

Quote:

Originally Posted by aussielongboat

not much change really - apart from being harder to read

<=$30 divi

total yr starters Wprice % of TOT
2054 2014 2003 $6.55 97.5%
31140 2013 30341 $6.78 97.4%
26464 2012 25646 $6.93 96.9%
20867 2011 20178 $7.07 96.7%
80525 Grand Total 78168 $6.90 97.1%

>30 divi
yr starters Wprice
2054 2014 51 $41.46 2.5%
31140 2013 799 $44.51 2.6%
26464 2012 818 $46.09 3.1%
20867 2011 689 $45.89 3.3%
80525 Grand Total 2357 $45.40 2.9%

Initially it was alarming. Effectively <$30 is the first 6 favs. >$30 is the rest. Thus 2.9% winners above 6th rank in underperforming. Showing that the ratings are getting better

22nd January 2014, 02:19 PM

Michal

Member

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 1,007

Quote:

Originally Posted by stugots

...... it would surprise if the overall tote figures had changed to such an extent, that would be a worry.

Looking at our data (the whole lot) from 5/3/2010 the picture that emerges supports something I have been saying all along. The market is getting smarter all the time. This is the analysis of NSW TOTE average prices of all horses by Year and Quarters. Gone down from $8.30 to $7.70 over 4 years

Code:

Year             Value    Bets   Wins   SR      Collect         Avg       POT       Profit         Outs

                 2010     130722 12429  9.5%    $103,124.70     $8.30     -21.11%   -$27,597.30    27  
                 2011     162321 15466  9.5%    $127,360.08     $8.20     -21.54%   -$34,960.92    27  
                 2012     162219 15999  9.9%    $125,096.82     $7.80     -22.88%   -$37,122.18    28  
                 2013     165680 16471  9.9%    $127,014.68     $7.70     -23.34%   -$38,665.32    27  
                 2014     9344   956    10.2%   $7,311.50       $7.60     -21.75%   -$2,032.50     23  

Quarters         Value    Bets   Wins   SR      Collect         Avg       POT       Profit         Outs

                 2010 Q1  12044  1147   9.5%    $9,189.50       $8.00     -23.70%   -$2,854.50     24  
                 2010 Q2  41414  3860   9.3%    $32,726.30      $8.50     -20.98%   -$8,687.70     27  
                 2010 Q3  38174  3602   9.4%    $30,749.30      $8.50     -19.45%   -$7,424.70     27  
                 2010 Q4  39090  3820   9.8%    $30,459.60      $8.00     -22.08%   -$8,630.40     27  
                 2011 Q1  40173  3821   9.5%    $31,833.70      $8.30     -20.76%   -$8,339.30     25  
                 2011 Q2  41405  3855   9.3%    $32,278.90      $8.40     -22.04%   -$9,126.10     27  
                 2011 Q3  38918  3621   9.3%    $30,086.30      $8.30     -22.69%   -$8,831.70     27  
                 2011 Q4  41825  4169   10.0%   $33,161.18      $8.00     -20.71%   -$8,663.82     24  
                 2012 Q1  40980  4056   9.9%    $32,334.32      $8.00     -21.10%   -$8,645.68     28  
                 2012 Q2  40617  3839   9.5%    $30,884.78      $8.00     -23.96%   -$9,732.22     28  
                 2012 Q3  39400  3819   9.7%    $30,914.28      $8.10     -21.54%   -$8,485.72     26  
                 2012 Q4  41222  4285   10.4%   $30,963.44      $7.20     -24.89%   -$10,258.56    25  
                 2013 Q1  40570  4180   10.3%   $31,297.94      $7.50     -22.85%   -$9,272.06     25  
                 2013 Q2  42239  4058   9.6%    $31,493.00      $7.80     -25.44%   -$10,746.00    27  
                 2013 Q3  41249  3978   9.6%    $32,720.44      $8.20     -20.68%   -$8,528.56     26  
                 2013 Q4  41622  4255   10.2%   $31,503.30      $7.40     -24.31%   -$10,118.70    26  
                 2014 Q1  9344   956    10.2%   $7,311.50       $7.60     -21.75%   -$2,032.50     23

As a side note I have never analysed 603,000 + horses. It was both great to see that Axis can do it without bogging down (took 9 min) and note that no one ever would have systems that would total even a quarter of those selections so I am happy to reaffirm that Axis is system testing 'capacity safe' for the next 100 years or more.

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

22nd January 2014, 02:25 PM

stugots

Banned

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 868

Good stuff Michal, very interesting, wonder if it is just part of a longer cycle or as has been suggested, the market is getting smarter.

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