hi

thanks frying pan for your input and yes i understand what you are saying.

i am well aware that we dont get the 100% of whatever pool we are dealing with.

the bookies like to have markets that are in excesss of 115% so one has to be careful.

Having said this there is still value out there if you look for it.

Its the very thing that inexperienced punters do is look for a magical plan and thats what system sellers rely on.

I remember one pretty cluey bloke was interviewed in relation to gambling etc. his response.

"YOU CANT CHANGE THE MATH"

This holds true with all forms so the advantage with horse betting is that you can try and get the math in your favor.

It seems from some of the responses i've received that it is presumed that a bad selection plan will somehow become a good selection plan with a good staking plan. This of course is nonsense.

You get a good selection plan first then any staking plan will win.

regards
ubetido

Ok, so we start again with a selection plan that shows a LEVEL STAKES PROFIT, a different proposition of course. A heap of staking plans here would increase the margin no doubt, but I would like to offer the folowing idea:
As we all know it's the losing run that kills us all off, so as a means of "spreading the risk" I've been working on an idea to treat say a whole meetings selections as one be OR (and this would suit your plan of more than one sel. per race Ubetido)
The possibilities are endless but one way would be calculate say three runners in a race as one bet i.e. split the stake (whatever it is) into 3 level bets, so for instance say the bet on that race is $30, so $10 win on each, say we have a 5/1 winner, so the return is $60, so we calc. this as an 1/1 winner, i.e $30 out $60 in.

Another way would be to count the entire meetings bets as 1 bet, i.e. say you have a selection method that selects 3 horse per race x 8 races, so 24 individual bets, lets say your staking plan calls for a bet of $72, so your stake is $3 win on each. say you have several winners and your return is $108 (to make the maths easy) so that is equivolent (overall) to a 1-2 winner, i.e. $72 out $108 in, etc etc.

As you can see there is many possibilities here but basically the idea is to avoid the dreaded losing run. Comments appreciated.

hi partypooper

appreciate your input and i have thought along those lines myself.

ill post something a bit more detailed when i have more facts together.

cheers
ubetido

Partypooper....sounds like an interesting idea but idf the returns were low finding a stakeing plan that could handle this would be needed.
if i remember rightly TESTAROSSA had a plan that might suit backing your selections as singles/doubles/trebles he claims he could make money with the place bet getting $1.
30 average price.

forgot to say ,of course you we would be betting race to race, day to day, metting to meeting, or for the super conservative, week to week. Rather than one horse per race betting race to race which is where the losing run usually breaks the bank eventually, as I've previously painfully found out!

Ubetido,

if you like i would like to run your selections ( past results say any 50 - 100 ) through the staking plan we are working on to see if it provides you with a greater outcome.

at this point i can only test for 2 selections per race so if you trial could take this acoount it would be good.

for the trial i will need in time order the races you bet on and the resulting div paid ( if you clooected on that race ) to also make the trial fair i will need to know your starting bank amount that you used in your trial so as to test it apples for apples. if you could also supply your strike rate it would help but this is not important.

what i dont want you to do is provide me with your $ outcome up front.

just email me the test results and i will run the test and supply back to your my outcome complete with data to validate the trial.

then if you want you can reveal your outcome and compare the staking plans.

R
Pete

peteryoung@iprimus.com.au