Hi Crash,
Perhaps we just have opposing views on this issue.
If a favourite is showing $2.50 on the tote and I rate it as an even money favourite, then I am getting 25% overlay without panicking (and it's quite easy to rate even money without the gods :wink.
And it is a great deal better than a 5% overlay on a $5.00 shot.
Yes you need a higher than 50% strike rate, but you'll find that a with a few filters and effective ratings, this is acheivable without heart in the mouth stuff.
Believe it or not, I get overlays place betting favourites applying strong filters.

JFK,

My "...straying off the topic"? Apart from my right to meander wherever I will and your right to impress with your [growing] Theasarus skills,why do you need three current threads on essentialy the same topic running in this forum? Prominence? Do you ever get time to stick your head in a Form Guide, between this,your Theasarus and your Stats. research? What say tho?

Do you really have to repeat your initial innuendo, about everybody's intelligence compared to your's [your initial swipe about "Forum demographics"], by a repeat performance with a new one about..."all of us supposed to being under the Smart Gambler umbrella"? Obviously, not everybody heard you the first time, ay[?]
If you want to stand on the top of a hill and yell out how clever you are, ...that's ok by me.

No, I dont think I've..."lost the plot" or "...overlooked anything".

Someone once wrote: "The minds capacity to play with the truth [Stats?] is an astonishing thing.There is always a way to tamper with the evidence".





[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-07-30 08:18 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-07-30 08:28 ]

Chrome Prince,

The difference is only betting style.I have few but large,for me anyway,bets on Saterday with [mostly] a bookie, except the fun stuff [a comp. with the handbrake...she is winning] for min. bets with Vic.Tab.

I'm not a good enough Formster,nor do I have the courage to try and make anything on very short priced favorites, regardless of filters. If they win ok you win somthing, but not much considering the risk. I prefere the loosing run leeway of better priced winners.

The place overlay on very short Favorites is certainly no myth.Often the place price is 50%+ of winning price.There is a system based on that but requires a LOT of bets placed seconds before the jump.I tried it once but nearly went nuts with the effort and concentration involved!
I keep away from place bets and as for exotics, the Tab. takeout is over the top.
But back to beting style. All the diversity here, makes the challenge of the punt so interesting!

Hey Crash

Another saying is "lies, damn lies, and statistics"

:smile:

Crash,

my original observation about demographics was clearly a reminder to La Mer that we should be talking about the situation for retail punters here, rather than his Mr Big Enough associates. As most here are retail punters or wannabes that's hardly an insult.

Now, I started this thread for a distinct reason. For comment about what I believe to be outrageous propaganda by Victorian Bookmakers. This is distinct from the Favourite/Long Shot bias anachronism.

Why no one else seems to be alarmed by the VicBet travesty dismays me.

In the second paragraph they mention 1,300 meetings. That ~10 years' worth of data.

Lots of things have changed. There were still some big firmers back in the early 90's. But that was well before TF was regularly available. With TF along with universal Sky, Internet and phones things are different and TF offers a very small premium over SP.

Where to find top value should always be at the forefront of punters' thoughts, yet very few here seem to have any independent ideas on the subject.

Or maybe they do care but just couldn't be bothered replying to someone who apparantly has very little tolerance for other peoples views????

For what its worth I agree that Best Tote will ON AVERAGE be better than TF for anything except fairly short favourites. For favourites the difference is fairly marginal (although I think you will find the advantage on TF is bigger for major metro meetings) so the betting decision will probably come down to other factors (eg. size of bet, when you want to place the bet, etc). Until recently Divi+ (or the Sportingbet equivalent) was not available on all races but now that it is I would agree that it is generally the best option for the AVERAGE punter who just wants to put a bet on without too much hastle. Of course for those willing to spend a bit more time then you can often improve on this for shorter runners by comparing Divi+ approximates with SP and with Betfair.