ellinas this is what I posted in the We can all retire thread on this forum:
Have a look at Horseracing systems the great con
http://www.propun.com.au/archived_b..._systems_1.html

Crash,

Are you having more than one bet per race?

Or are you betting a set number of units per race?

You said you were betting level stakes, so I'm assuming it must be one of the above.

While 112 races is a very small sample at least we can dissect it a little to give you a guide.

112 races outlay 1380 units.

I'm going to assume here that you bet 12.32 units (average) per race with one bet per race - otherwise the whole thing will be up the spout!

Your win strike rate is 23.21% or you can expect to collect on 23.21 races for every 100 races that you bet on.

Your average win dividend is $7.83 (if my assumption is correct).

Your return for 1 unit investment on 100 races level stakes is 181.73

Your profit on turnover is a whopping 81.73%

You sure you're betting level stakes?

Now I went to my database to find out the average place dividend of horses paying between $7.00 and $8.00 at the jump, as a rough idea of your expected place dividend.

I took a sample of 877 such horses at metropolitan tracks (because the pools are bigger) and came up with an average place price of $2.25.

The problem is that I don't know your place strike rate to work out the result.

If you can provide a place strike rate, we can take it from there as a rough guide.

The above analysis is only a rough estimate.

Chrome Prince,

Thanks for all that figurin' [that sort of stuff makes my head spin!]. I have checked my books and the figures are correct. I am profiting more than normal but probably because I'm puting more effort into the form as I'm now relying on one Horse!

I don't record finishing position if I loose. I copy all bets into a hard book from my on screen betting account once a week because I don't have many bets [no recording of placings if I loose], but my horses regularly place [thats why the betting statergy change].

I don't use a progressive staking system but my bet size fluctuates depending on how large an overlay I believe is on offer. Basicly the larger the overlay, the larger the bet. 50% of those profit figures you worked out are from bets with more than ten unit wagered [if that helps].My average win is usualy about 3.50/6.00, but I get some big payouts on what I consider large overlays [usualy mid-week or Sun. and often provincial] that distort averages. I don't think you could call that betting style progressive as I don't chase loses with bigger bets.

Does that throw calculations to the wind? 70% 0f my bets would be 10 unit bets and another 20% would be 20 units and 10% range from 30 to 100 units if that helps things?
Somthing like that anyway.
Was Ok with the "unit" until I tried to use %. Anyway, MOST of my bets are ten units [God I hate Maths past addition and subtraction].

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 15:43 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 15:51 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 16:02 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 16:12 ]

Hi Mark,

Thanks for the reply, but I dont use the tote. I use Divi+ and a phone bookie if I miss the 2min. close before the race with Divi+ .

Longshot Bias? Oh no, not that pitch!

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 15:38 ]

Crash

They let you bet e/w & have more on the place?, that's great.
Yes the old longshot bias again, (let's foget I mentioned it, otherwise it will take up pages & pages again)

:smile:

To give you any sort of accuracy, I think rather than revealing your actual past selections, that you should record every bet from now on and it's placing.

Then repost here when you have a decent sample using 1 unit bets for reporting.

Then I'd be more than happy to give you some feedback on strategy.

But you are definitely on the right track betting as you are on the overlays.



[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-08-21 16:23 ]

Thanks Chrome Prince,

The "unit" business totaly stuffed me up because by the end of that series of 112 bets my "average" bet had changed twice due to winnings [not loses]. So average profits [and loses] naturaly progressed twice. An average overall had to be relyed on. Greater than my first bets, but smaller than my latter Bets [Average]. If you get my drift [?]

I've been keeping place records since Sunday and I will find out sooner probaly rather than later if I should go back to win only betting. Thanks for all your help and the figures.

Cheers.

hi crash,

i'm interested to know whether win or e/w or place betting is better for you.

i'm a win only man but sometimes on a roughie i will have 8 by 2 or 15 by 5 for example.

please post when you find out if you dont mind


cheers

umrum

[ This Message was edited by: umrum on 2003-08-21 16:54 ]

Hi Umrum,

Look, as for place betting I'm a complete novice. In 25yrs. of serious interest [and another 7yrs. non serious] in the punt, I have until last Sunday, taken no interest in Place betting [or exotics]. Win only, that's been me. Occasionly I have a place on somthing as well as a win if I seriously consider it a two horse race that only X will win and Y will place [ eg: W/F Syd. 20/8th.R3 Solid as a Rock to win and Orrange for second or at least Place, but could possibly win it. Look at the form and anybody tell me it wasn't a two Horse race?].
That was the result 1/2. Now to anybody who knows anything, that might have been a dumb bet, but I'd like a dollar for every time I've pulled it off. Bets like that and the amount of times my win selections Place, has got me into a 1 x 4 W/P looky see [see my tips for last Sunday, I was a lot better off with this approach].
Maybe it should be a straight E/W or somthing like 1 x 8, I just don't know enough about the Place to say.

I'll keep you posted about the experiment.

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 19:45 ]

IF YOU WERE TO BUY THE BETTING LIBRARY 3 FROM INRACING YOU HAVE ENOUGH THERE TO DEVELOP YOUR OWN RATING METHODS,AND AT $95 ITS A STEAL.