Don't EVER bet E/W ????, yeah who wants to bet e/w at 250% with a return of 300%

Mark,

I'm obviously expressing my opinion only.

Some punters can make the odd buck on place betting but your dealing with very unstable divi that is more than likely to crash downward as upward [cosistentcy is what I'm looking for in my above point of view] just as you have put your money on or worse, AFTER the start.

I wonder why pro Punters avoid the place bet and exotics like the plague [as well as everthing ealse I've mentioned]?

Perhaps they know something?

Cheers.

Crash,

Mark didn't say anything about betting with TAB - his e/w bets are with the bookies where the return is guaranteed (and very profitable for Mark's approach).

Place betting could become very profitable now that Betfair is offering it - either laying or backing!

I know of several professionals who do bet exotics almost exclusively but I would agree that you should leave them alone until you have mastered win betting.

I agree with the comments re drinking, loss chasing and progression betting though!

Gee Mark, thanks for telling me about your fixed prices [?]

Becareful, yes I know about the exotic and even place beting pros. but considering their tiny number and geting it in context with the original poster, my points were general and accurate initial advice.

Cheers all and good luck tomorrow.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-06 09:29 ]

Crash;

I'm an advacote of the majority of your beleifs but use mechanical means to restrict and reduce my bets to a point where i feel it safe to bet in some of your races to be avoided,eg;2yo & 3yo.

On the each way debate i can't see the point of regardless of price each way betting,but if you set yourself a minimum place divy and only bet the place on top of your win bet if you can acheive that price then i'm all for it.

A bigger minimum place div might make someone feel better at the time, but the shorter the win price the more the percentages favour the place bettor.


[ This Message was edited by: shoto on 2003-09-06 00:12 ]

Shoto,

I know where your comming from and in principal agree as it is the same for a win bet.

However, it is a hard task to plonk money down on a horse paying 1.10 for the place or worse, the ones we regularly see paying "money back" after the jump and you can't do anything about it. If the horse dosn't place you loose your money and if it wins you get it back without a cent profit!

I backed five odds-on horses [amongst three others that won thank god] on Thursday as I thought they looked safe money. They all lost. Luckily I didn't back them for a place as it would have hurt a lot worse.

Moral? I will now stick to the wise council and maxims of past punting sages [never bet odds-on]that I have usualy got by on nicely and not to anything I read in this forum because as those sages say, "what can go wrong, often does" [five times in a row and I mean losses on those five races with three zeros ]. A very good lesson from the past.

Cheers and good punting to all.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-06 07:06 ]

hi all

was interested when i saw this post. the question i have bases on what you have indicated is if a horse has the following stats
40starts win 2 2nd 1 3rd 0

then under you model this horse has as w/p ratio of 66% yet this is not a consistent horse given the number of starts.

Have you found this to be a problem or have you factored in some minimum or max starts etc.

regards
ubetido

Hi Ubetido;

At this stage i have no starts requirement instead to avoid that type of situation i am sticking to horses with a win% of 25 or more.

I do see a need for a cut off point in relation to starts as the older a horse gets the less likely it is to still have that winning edge but at this stage i have not decided on that number,somewhere around the 34 start mark would be my guess.

Ohh and i also ask for horses to have won at least 2 races.

Play around with it people and let me know what you come up with.

becareful,

Every time any contibutor suggests that Mark's ideas are flawed you come to his/her rescue.
Do we have our first romance on the forum?
Interested in your response.:razz: