Good stuff Chrome i'm excited lol.

So that's 64 bets for a return of $80.10 hmmm.

Just to make sure these horses are the young horses resuming after their first campaign aren't they?

I'll be keeping a closer eye on them from now on and i'll go you halves in the glossy brouchures and ensuing fortune lol.

P.S.-could you check the results for these horses that have also won at the distance because i've got a feeling the middle distance and staying horses might be dragging the overall return down.

Hi Dale,

Firstly, I'm concerned at the limited number of bets these little systems throw up out of a possible 2,000 metro class races.

My concern is that with limited sample sizes, what looks good or bad can turn either way with another 2,000 races.

That said, here's what I found for you....

RULES
2YO HORSES ONLY (3YO's showed a massive loss)
Spell of greater than 30 days
Must have won last start
Must have won over the distance
All Trainers

Selections: 25
Winners: 5
Strike Rate: 20.00%
Profit: $5.20
POT: 20.80%
Ave Dividend: $6.04

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

thanks Chrome Prince but i'm a little confused,does all trainers mean the three you have already mentioned or all trainers either way there should be heaps more bets.

Also my theory with these horses relates to them having a proper spell of 90 days or more,this is important because i am looking at horses that the trainers are wiling to race sparingly because they have high opinions of them and don't want them to burn out too early.

A system to target these horse would go like this;

#10 race starts or less.
#Won last star before a spell of 90 days.

And posibly;

#Won at distance.
###Trained by a leading trainer/double the bet if trained by a leading trainer.

I have noticed Hawkes and Waterhouse are more willing than others to spell a good young horse after it wins but there also other astute trainers with smaller teams that do the same.

UPDATED RESULTS

Selections: 86
Winners: 16
Strike Rate: 18.60%
Average Dividend $10.71
Profit: $85.40
POT: 99.30%

Last winner:
27/9/03 Randwick Race 9 Salgado $8.50

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

For those that wanted the stats on spells of three months or more:

Selections: 75
Winners: 14
Strike Rate: 18.67%
Profit: $79.60
POT: 106.13%
Average Dividend: $11.04

Last winner:
Salgado $8.50

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Here is an update of Hawkes first up runners.

a) Rules:
Trained by John Hawkes
Spell of greater than 30 days

Selections: 275
Winners: 36
Strike Rate: 13.09%
Average Dividend $7.96
Profit: $11.70
POT: 4.25%

b) Rules:
Trained by John Hawkes
Spell of greater than 90 days

Selections: 245
Winners: 33
Strike Rate: 13.47%
Average Dividend $8.08
Profit: $21.50
POT: 8.78%

c) Rules:
Trained by John Hawkes
Spell of greater than 90 days
Must have won first up before

Selections: 83
Winners: 15
Strike Rate: 18.07%
Average Dividend $10.49
Profit: $74.30
POT: 89.52%

Plan c is by far and away the best plan to date.

Rules:
Trained by John Hawkes
Spell of greater than 90 days
Must have won first up before

Selections: 86
Winners: 15
Strike Rate: 17.44%
Average Dividend $10.49
Profit: $71.30
POT: 82.91%

Still holding up ok but not many additional qualifiers.

_________________
"The man who can correctly assess Class can have all the money he wants and he only needs a dollar to start". - Pittsburg Phil

[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-10-28 21:57 ]

CP
can your database do all what you did, and
look for a stable mate, then look for if the highest paying stablemate wins more than the lowest paying stablemate ?

puntz,

It is not set up that way, but I could do it by exporting overall results to spreadsheet then filtering.

It would be a massive undertaking to do it for all trainers, but let me know who you'd like in particular and what information exactly you need and when I have some spare time I'll endeavour to post it here.

Rules:
Trained by John Hawkes
Spell of greater than 90 days
Must have won first up before

Selections: 89
Winners: 15
Strike Rate: 16.85%
Average Dividend $10.49
Profit: $68.30
POT: 76.74%

Not too many qualifiers still.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg