Crash, I followed an experiment a few years ago in an English Mag, analysing 20,000 winners (I thik it was) to determine any (if any) constants, one of the things they come up with was 80%+ of winners ran within 3.5lengths of the winner last start (if it was the winner, of course it was 0 from winner) I put this in my data base as DFW (distance from winner) but some commercial databases call it BM (beaten margin) iether way it's not that difficult to include. Another interesting thing was that 80%+ of winners carried within 3.5kg's + or -(ignoring claims) of it's SET weight last start. Interesting stuff eh?

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2003-11-09 19:05 ]

On 2003-11-09 18:05, crash wrote:

The reason you never see a beaten length rule [far more logical than a place rule] is that it can't be run through a data base [backfitted].

Hi Crash,

beaten length is not all that difficult to include in a database. This info is included in most good formguides, Cyberhorse included, and is imported into Price Predictor Pro.

Price Predictor Pro has a last start margin setting for use in system testing, which can be set to a negative number to indicate that a selection must have won by more than this amount at it's last start.

I must agree that it can be a valualbe selection tool, as I have one system which uses this alone and over the past 8 months has had 130 selections for a 34% S/R and a 25% flat stakes POT..... It is arguably my best "system"....

Cheers,
Chris.

Thanks for that great info. Partypooper and Stebbo. I didn't think it would be available for stats. My 'baiting' was just ment to liven up the party [in my usual way].

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-11-09 18:48 ]

Oh yes you can, and this is why I built my own database from scratch and it's still not finished 10 months later.
I can add comments and then filter by on pace or backmarker etc.


Both Becareful and myself are statsmen and we finished o.k. in the last competition.

The main reason that I stay away from competitions in general, is that the cut off is always too early.
Track is downgraded etc and you're gone.
Secondly all my systems have price rules and there is no way to accurately determine the SP prior to 10AM etc.

Chrome,

That's a simple cop out as you where in this present Comp. at the start but dropped out [put your tips in after 10am ]. Just a reminder by the way, I was just 'reving up' the thread, but there was a small point about putting up [and not dropping out with a lame excuse] that was worth a mention. Who won the last comp. A stats man ? I bet he wasn't.

Cheers.



[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-11-09 21:59 ]

I wasn't talking about the forum comp crash,
I was talking about the last one becareful did.
I dropped out because of my own reasons.

No cop out.

Fair enough Chrome. But I did get a bit of a battering over my 'Kiss' principal from the Stats. brigade who distored what I had said to make it look as if I was advocating guessing as a selection method [far from it].
I was just getting in a bit of light hearted revenge here and general stirring. Sorry that you copped it because you were not one of the 'guilty' [I'll catch em' up sometime].

Cheers and thanks for the reply to put things straight.