Rather than try and improve handicapping skills or come up with clever betting schemes...most punters could improve their punting results by a minimum of 30% if they they improved their decision making in each race.

Decision making is what comes after you have analysed a race, sorted your contenders and understood what the market is telling you.

Identify the right situations to play and the situations to avoid betting is the single most important factor to punting sucess.

Just because you like a horse and think it will win, thats no reason to back it. Just because your price says $3.50 and the market say $3.80 or $4.00, that is no reason to back a horse.

There is always a much broader context and scenario you are faced with in each race, some are good to bet and others are not so good. Spending time learning how to identify these situations and make appropriate decisions is the key to winning and most importantly knowing that you can do it year in year out.

Spend time on this element of your punting skill and your results will dramatically improve, almost overnight. A good place to start is to go back over your winners (assuming you keep records) and look at the scenarios you were presented with in those races. How did your horse(s) stack up against other contenders? was it your top pick? how big was its advantage? How did the market have the race? Who was the favourite? How did you assess that horse? What about the other market challengers? What did you feel about the overall race? There are numerous other questions.

The principle is that one of the best ways to identify the good situations to play in is to review the situations where you have enjoyed success in the past. Sooner or later a pattern will emerge and you will start to get a good feel for when it is 'right' to launch in and bet. Next time you are confronted with that situation you will know and bet with confidence. Focus on those situations in betting and your results will improve.

ALternatively, you will also get a feel for the times when you are confronted with a situation that hasn't proven historically successful, regardless of how much you liked the horse.

The difference between the punter who battles losing a small amount each year (if they are honest with themselves) and the punter who consistently wins each year is not necessarily handicapping skill or some clever betting plan...the successful punter is skilled and ruthless in identifying which situations to bet in and which situations to leave alone.



[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2003-11-25 21:34 ]

Yes osulldj, I agree with you totally. Seriously punting requires extensive study of the races and racing. The knowledge gained can be analysed by the human mind much better than any set of betting rules or a computer can do.

The one period I was consistently successful at punting was during my student days. Each week on Thursday I would purchase the Sportsman and do a preliminary analysis of every race in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne and I would settle on what I considered were good chances in each race. During Friday I would look carefully at each race and each of my chances in the race compared with the other horses. I would consider times, weight and more importantly which horses has beaten which, and come up with a possible selection in every race. After scratchings on Saturday morning I would then make a final decision and discarded most races. If I had between 6 and 10 bets left I would go to the track and even then I could change my mind on whether to bet depending on the market.

The point I want to make is that after doing this for several weeks I had built up a working knowledge in my mind of the ability of many of the horses currently running and out of the 24 odd races each week I could usually quickly zero in on some that were well placed to win a race.

This approach of course takes a lot of time and effort and I am not game enough to do this at the expense of my day job. Betting systems are really only for the hobby punter, which I now am, and I enjoy investigating them even though I know deep down what the correct approach should be. But for me it is just relaxation and I get the satisfaction of occasionally snaring a good priced winner. My mechanical method takes about 30 seconds a race to find the selection and has broken even most years for the last 10 years.

osulldj,

With all due respect this is probably one of your worst statements that you've made.

The exact opposite is the key to success providing your ratings are accurate, but we're all different.

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Decision making is very important [ confidence should be just as important ] but not before hadicapping skills surely and should these skills be put in the same boat as 'fancy ideas' as you seem to have done Osulldj ? I would have thought they were totaly different animals.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-11-26 10:10 ]

Hi Chrome,

I thought my statement would arouse a little response. It goes against the grain or "set your prices and bet the overs" that has been espoused for more than 30 years. I think it is only partially right in its education of punters though...Perhaps I should explain myself further....

The principle is that you should bet when you have an advantage, I think we all agree on that?

However, just because you price a horse at $3.50 and it is $3.80 or $4.00 in the market, that doesn't necessarily mean you have an advantage worthwhile betting into. By itself it is nothing more than a mathemtical difference in the price you have given to an individual runner.

To have an advantage, you have to know what it is and why it exists...a price difference is not an advantage in itself.

Too many people do their ratings, churn out prices and think that diffences in price represent an advantage and all they have to do is bet the overs without another thought and everything will be sweet.

The problem is that first of all one is assuming their analysis and ratings are correct...thats fine we are all confronted with that issue...secondly and more importantly, it relies on the method you use to price being absolutely spot on at estimating winning chances. Really, if you have a 2 points difference in your ratings, can anyone honestly say their approch to converting those to a price is absolutely correct? Of course not.

If you price your top pick $2.80 and in the market it is a $3.10 favourite does that mean you have an advantage? Both you and the market have it as the horse to beat...and there is just a $0.30 differencce in your price...or an estimated 3% difference in winning chance.

The difference is a purely mathematical one, not a winning advantage...especilly when you and the market have the same opinion that is is the horse to beat. There is a broader context you need to understand to confirm whether or not there is an advantage.

The only way there is an advantage is if you have a belief with a firm reason why, that the market has something wrong in betting.

Maybe the 2nd favourite in the market is $4, but you don't think it has anywhere near that chance because of some form based reason, or conditions of today's race. Okay, now you have a sense of an advantage The market thinks the 2nd fav is a strong challenger to the fav but you don't think it is at all...if you are right, then the favourite is likely value. Is the fav a $2.80 chance as your price says? Who knows, it doesn't really matter....all you know is that you have an advantage and the horse is some value at $3.10.

Alternatively the 2nd fav could be $4 and you have it priced at $4.50...both you and the market see it as some logical danger, but there is a slight mathematical difference in your prices. In this situation you don't have an advantage, I can guarantee it.

Avoid betting in these type of situations and focus on the type presented above and I can guarantee that results will improve ...especially for those that set their prices and currently focus on just betting the overs.

A difference in price doesn't mean you have an advantage. The difference is slight but I hope it makes sense. :smile:




[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2003-11-26 10:23 ]

Hi Crash,

It was remiss of me to group handicapping skills in the same group as fruitless betting schemes. Handicapping skills are an essential element to success...in fact you must become a good handicapper before anything else. If you can't pick winners then you have no hope..there's no question about that.

In making my point, I was trying to say that top handicapping skills only get you a ticket to the game. There are thousands of good selectors out there and many people have poured years of hard work and research into becoming strong handicappers, but still can't win on the punt.

The skill that bridges that gap is judgement and decision making. Understanding the right and wrong scenarios and being ruthless about the races to bet in and the races to leave alone. Only betting when you have an advantage and you know what it is.

I can confidentally say that anyone who already has good handicapping skills desn't need to pick more winners to make money on the punt...they need to understand race and betting scenarios better and more become skilled and ruthless in those thing I mentioned above.

Cheeers :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2003-11-26 10:26 ]

osulldj,

Apologies for my harsh response earlier, after your explanation I see what you're driving at now.

The accuracy of the ratings or overs must be a primary consideration.

Cheers.

hi folks been watching this forum for a while so thought it is time to put in my 2 bob's worth.level stakes vs progression, interesting, i have tried them all over years and to me it gets down to how good one is at picking winners and then developing a betting stratergy to suit ones temprement.for 7 mths now i have been using a progression method, moderate in the increases applied and my selections have ave.19%win at ave about$5.30 , break even, but using my progression i have a pot of 11%, not big but as i turnover circa $2200 p/week it is worthwhile. i am not saying there is one way that is best but this works for me so far, some bad runs of outs , worst was 27 and took away all profits plus some but it has come back . As long as the bank can stand it and the nerves hold out it returns. anyway i enjoy the interesting and thought provoking comments by the group,cheers

I still contend that you only have a real advantage if you back winners that very few other punters also back. This business of handicapping/pricing was fine when it was first used but these days it is irrelevant because too many do it including bookies. That is why its originator gave it away.

Hi Crash & all,
A bit slow on the reply (a bit busy at work) Yes of course your comments about level stakes profit is accepted. The comparison though was levels as against target betting.
I think that there is a case for target betting when using a method that already shows a level stakes profit or even "break even" as "PERDON ME" has demonstrated.
Crash, Be-careful, Chrome, all your comments appreciated.