Becareful,

I encourage you to develop your program further. I am certainly interested in such a program. Like others, I'm working with pen and paper, race by race. Personally, I'd be happy with a database of, say, 1000 past race results with which to test selection ideas. If the TAB owns coipyright on their data, there are obvious legal problems.

So much of racing is about the control of information. I was subscribing to a coimmewrcial selection package. It was based on three simple factors and produced great results. It was all readily available data, but buried in the racing pages. I was paying for someone else to collect it, time being the crucial thing.

I gather that the TAB (with all their number crunching power and research) knows very well that some data is more relevant than others in tipping winners - but they're not about to codify the relevant data on their website. Instead, the TAB website offers low-grade, general data.

Information is big business in this game. If you could market it somehow, becareful, I'm sure punters would go for it.

Hermes

Becareful, you indicated that Hermes idea would produce an overall loss on Sat metro races.

Do you have any 'feel' for the situation if all races were considered? Don't want you to run your whole database or anything, but your obvious work on your punting would, I think, enable you to give an educated guess.

Personally, I 'feel' that there may be a lot more value in many weekday and out-of-town races than most of us suspect. Maybe Hermes' filters, if we can call them that, would help?

Obviously writing my other response while you were giving yours, Hermes!

Can understand your attitude to getting out; but I certainly hate the feeling of being well up and then losing it all :sad: Suppose a better way would be to use some of the winnings and then get out if no luck. Like in most gambling there is no reason why the bets should run in groups either way!!!

Merrigum wrote:

Like in most gambling there is no reason why the bets should run in groups either way!!!

True enough, but any system will nevertheless have a characteristic pattern of strikes and outs. For example, some systems will give you lots of short-priced winners and will consequently (usually) yield lots of strikes in a row before an out. A long-shot system will give you lots of outs in a row before a strike. There is nothing to say in any system that just because you've had five outs in a row the next race "must" be a winner, but in some systems it will be more likely than others. Its not just POT that determines a good system, but a reliable strike pattern. If you've got a system with only meager POT but a reliable strike pattern, you can make a fortune.

I agree, Merrigum, that there's nothing worse than losing a good profit and ending the day thinking, "If only I'd stopped at the big win on race three...", but once you start thinking "if only" in racing, you're a goner.

Hermes

Just my opinion, and what I stick to.

Get my profit and get out, Why be greedy?

Lady Luck has a lot to do with this game, when she favours you grab it and run.

I believe any punter worth his salt on most occasions is ahead on any one day.

Just depends on how much you want out of it compared to the size of your bet.

Give me 1 point a day every day with never a losing day and I'll be in heaven.

Cheers

Thanks Kenchar. Why be greedy? Only because winning margins are small in this game and long-term it is hard to make a quid.

I'm not opposed to target betting as such. But I am averse to chasing losses. I much prefer methods that build on wins. If I'm having a bad day I quit, target or no target. I've had some *very* bad days and the more I chased those losses the more I crashed. There'll be more races tommorow. But each to their own. Whatever works for you. If you make a small profit a day, you're doing better than most. Good on ya.

One thing is for sure - a punter without discipline is doomed. The best thing I ever learned was how to enjoy my selection winning in a romp without me putting a buck on it and without caning myself with "if only..."

Good punting

Hermes

Speaking of target betting, does anyone have any solid info on last races? That's the make-or-break race the target betters splurge on and consequently the last race on a ticket is often a different affair than the earlier races. I understand that a higher perrcentage of favourites get up in last races, for example. Anyone with data on this? Anyone with a selection system tailored to the peculiarities of last race betting?

Check this site for favs in the last.


http://www.adrianmassey.com/flfav/index.htm

I'm not talking about target betting.

I mean 1 point which is the size of your bet flat stakes.

e.g YOUR bet $200 first race even money winner profit $200 go home.

I usually run (on winning days) that if I get 2 points profit either on first bet or after some losing bets then winners to have one more bet.
If that wins have another bet until a lose, then knock off.
For example last week I had 1 lose then 6
wins, then a lose and went home,but sadly the losing days take the cream out of it.


Cheers


[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2003-12-08 19:38 ]

Re Favs in last race ,
They win the same standard percentage, but their price tends to be higher than the average , its LOT is far less than the average of -20%

__________________
Cheers.

Re Favs in last race ,
They win the same standard percentage, but their price tends to be higher than the average , its LOT is far less than the average of -20%

__________________
Cheers.