Darky.

No, it just complicates things for no practical reasons whatsoever [unless your system revolves around running style and field strength of course ]. Swings and slides come into play regarding filtering in general, and to achieve a better POT from a system using more filters can decrease the number of bets to the point that they no longer represent the majority of them.

With specific regard to running style and field strength, I'd point out that if a good system throws up a selection it is showing that it's running style and field strength are doing fine thank you, or it wouldn't be a selection.

The first question that affects filter numbers that I would ask myself would be: 'How many bets a week I am happy restricting myself too and especially on Saturday '?
The second question would be with regard to what $$$ amount per selection am I comfortable outlaying ? Too few bets would require too large an outlay for the same profit so I need a minimum of about 25 bets a week with about 6 or 7 on Saturday for the system to stay viable and maintain my interest. We all have to set our own comfort zones in this area however, so maybe more or even less filters would be required but avoid filters that do what another make unnecessary. An obvious eg. would be: 1. No maiden races. 2. Must have won it's last start. etc.

As I have my system now, if a selection makes it through to the betting stage it already has a top chance of winning with the filters I already have in place. The variables that are left are mostly in the hands of the gods or represent poor handicapping benefits anyway and further filters would only leave me wondering what day or perhaps even what week it will be before I can actually have a bet. We all know what happens when we put ourselves in that situation.

Cheers.



[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-01-02 13:37 ]

Hi Darkydog,
I figure that the rating given by whichever professional rater covers both the running style and the opposition horses' strengths.
And I'm not a morning person so the least info I have to come up with at 10 am the better .
Years ago I tried including every known variable..I ended up with 55 variables for each horse and just one race took an hour or so to evaluate...I'll stick with my 8 meager variables.

Cheers..Gumboot

I use to be the same...had lots of variables took ages to work out a race....sometimes i came up with ripper prices but at what time cost....i started to think what are the main form factors to me the lasr 3 beaten margins are the first thing i look at...if you take the top 6 horses according to beaten margins and put them in order of lowest price to highest price you can find some good exotics then i like to add the class factor looking at what races they have been in lately and giveing them a value.....just with these 2 bits of info you can have a lot of fun

Hi All,

Long time no post...

I have been using the following criteria as the basis of a system for about a year now with good results albeit reliant on the occasional 12/1 or 15/1 shot getting up. But it seems to do this regularly enough for flat stake betting. Here are the criteria:

1. Pre Post Price
2. Average Prizemoney
3. Racing Style (Leader, On Pace, Behind)
4. Sportsman Zipform
5. Weight
6. Barrier
7. Last Start Finish
8. 2nd Last Start Finish

I have found I can generally do 'the selections' in about an hour on Friday night for S, M, B, & A.

I then spend Saturday morning with a cup of coffee (right now) doing as 'crash' said "seeing why I shouldn't have a bet".

Good luck in 2004.


Lucky

Hi Gumboot and Crash.
I agree .Too many variables and you exclude most horses.
For me I prefer to look at a couple of standouts in a 1200-1600 race in a smaller field.
That seems to work best for me.
Today for example there appears to be 1 race with 2 top chances .
I couldnt imagine myself betting 25 -30 horses a week but thats just me.Everyone to their own I guess.
Cheers.
Darky.

Hi Darkydog,
I used to use the Sportsman zipratings too ,but the only newsagent for miles no longer stocks it..I was the only one who purchased it!
I've tried the Age newspaper ratings which is what I used to come up with the Moonee Valley picks for 3/1/04..then I thought better of it and used the tabracing ratings as I have been for a while now and came up with different picks.

Of the 6 picks I made using the Age ratings I got 2 winners from the 4 suitable races..2 were mares or filly races which I didn't notice at the time.
Using the tabracing ratings I got 3 winners from the 4 races I bet on.
Just goes to show..don't change a thing when it's working!.

But the Sportsman is so much better..if I can get it.

And Luckboy...I'm glad to see that someone else uses minimal info as well...I only use 3 of the same variables as you do but I will try out your 8 variables some time and see how the 2 lots compare over time.