Hi stebbo,
You are spot on!
All those things happen - that is precisely why I do the form. If there is a wide runner in Box 2 that begins well, it will set the race up for Box 1 providing Box 1 is a railer. If you bet on dogs without studying lots of video replays, you will get slaughtered.

Hi Rocksteady,
Just one thing I'm curious about and I'm not trying to be smart as I've had enough of that from others here myself.

I have a friend who is very very good backing dishlickers but he ALWAYS goes to the track to get the weight, which basically restricts to local Sydney races.

He will NEVER back a dog that is up 1/2 a kilo or down 1 kilo on it's last run.

Do you bring this into your equations and if so how do you get the weight on the net.

Also he will NEVER back a small bitch from barrier 1 as will shy away from bigger dogs on her outside.

Cheers

[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-01-10 19:58 ]

[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-01-10 19:59 ]

Hi guys,

Getting back on track here (not that I'm not interesting in the dogs - interesting punting option!). The purpose of the discussion was to clarify some mathematical assumptions (as this forum group is about systems). I believe what my ramblings boil down to is this: a horse that is super fit and bolts in in 6 lengths is likely to repeat the act in the SAME race, if it could be repeated (which it can't - hence the earlier conceptual difficulty). The less the estimated win length, the more the danger of inrunning influences.

After considering the likelyhood of a 6L winning bolter to repeat the performance to be near 100% and further considering what Hermes wrote earlier, I now think (my) handicapping is a matter looking for the likely percentage variation in the honest running of all horses in the race.

If I get a good estimate of the theoretical running of the field (by using for example Price Predictor Pro), then I can estimate what influence sll contenders may have in influencing the winners run by considering running style, jockey and barrier position.

Thus I guess I believe that getting a clear estimate of how a race will be run can be used to reduce or increase the likelyhood that a selection will perform to its rated best. Perhaps this is just repeating a simpler philosophy, but I like reinventing the wheel my way :wink:

~Lenny

Hi,
I can answer a few questions regarding greyhounds, as being the owner of possibly one of the largest form databases of greyhounds nationally
Fitness=Weight in most cases, If I find the avg racing weight of say every dog in my databes that have more than 50 career starts, the lighter racing weight half will be quicker than the heavy half, the frequency this occurs is quite remarkable.
So your friend is heading in the right direction, the only thing that will conflict with weight is when they are young 18 months etc, they will add weight as they grow an become more powerful(barring injury).

In regards to light weight bitches not favouring Box 1, well think of a heavy dog as a cement truck with the same acceleration, an the bitch as a sports coupe, so its a no brainer that on a two turn track with an 80 metre run from the boxes to the first turn, on avg a greyhound weighing less than 28 kilos will run faster than a greyhounds weighing over 33 kilos, but things do get a little more interesting on one turn tracks.



[ This Message was edited by: woof43 on 2004-01-10 20:59 ]

Lenny,

I'm VERY sorry to get off the subject, but if you want to back a horse that won by 6 lengths at it's last start go ahead it will be $1.20 and if it wins who cares at those odds but will probably be knocked off by a bolter.

Happens too many times for my liking.

Cheers

Hi Woof,

I'm interested in your form database for the dogs... Is this something you've compiled yourself or something you subscribe to?

As to "one turn" or "two turns"... how do you define a one turn track as opposed a two turn track?

Many moons ago I subscribed to the greyhoundform website, and developed what I thought was a nice little system on the dogs.. Part system, part form analysis, it had a strike rate of about 75% on paper.... and lost the first 15 bets I put real money on...

My neighbor and I punt on the dogs as relaxation... $2 and $3 bets and have a ball.... I wouldn't mind winning a little more frequently than we do tho!

Cheers,
Chris.

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-01-31 00:36 ]

No worries, Kenchar. :smile:

To me (and many others I'm sure), there are three key notions to winning at the races. The right horse, the right race and the right price. We all know the right horse is not always the one that is in form and rated the highest, it can suffer due to its running style, the track shape, direction of running, jockey, BP, etc.

I'm trying to quantify what influence the actual race has on a top form runner, and find out to what extent in-race circumstances will affect its run. If I can convert the best and worse possible race for a selection into kilograms or lengths, then perhaps I have a way of handicapping that can bypass the multitude of variables that keeps guarenteed winners elusive. If the worst case rating of a selection is beyond the best case rating of all other runners, its a darned good bet.

~Lenny


[ This Message was edited by: Lenny on 2004-01-11 04:33 ]

Lenny,
I really think becareful answered your question.

10 events run under the same conditions 10 times and you can get a different overall outcome each time.

Cheers

Kenchar,

I feel what Lenny has been trying to say regarding repeatability is that old handicapping adage : 'Horses are creatures of habit, and repeat what they have done before'. If only it was true as they have a habit of suffering a bout of amnesia the moment your money goes on !!

Lenny,

I think what you are discovering [ 're-inventing' as you put it ] and trying to come to terms with above is basically, 'handicapping ' in general. If not, it sounds very much like it [?].

Regarding Greyhound weight as a handicapping tool. In the UK they weigh the horses for the same reason. It would be great to see that done here as performance peaks can then be matched to past preps.

Judging a Horses fitness used to be a very commonly acquired art form from years of plodding over to the ring to 'look at fitness'. As a kid, almost every Saturday used to be an off to the races day with my Grandfather. Nowadays with Sky Channel, TAB's and Pub or Puter punting which encourages stay at home punting, most Punters wouldn't know a winning fit horse from a hot dog so knowing a Horse's weight would be a boon to our handicapping efforts.

Cheers,


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-01-11 08:50 ]