Hi Shaun

It's funny talking from the other side of the world. You are probably in bed when I post and vice versa when you post.

Mixing and matching horse racing variables is like making a cake. The basic ingredients are the same but the result can be as different as fairy cakes and black forest gateux.

I tell you what I have noticed on this forum is that there seem to be a lot of people who come on as first timers, ask a question then never come back to respond to the answers -STRANGE!

Dolus

This is very true....some people like to take from this forum but never give back.....i will say one thing i learned most of what i know from books and pratice...people could learn a lot from what is posted on this forum from simple selection systems to complex ratings it is all here if you look hard enough

Thankyou for your comments on my less than a week old post

I have been very busy gathering information on Computer Gambling Schemes, especially when there is such a large of money at stake. I've come to the conclusion..if you don't have it to loose don't part with it, but it's not me that wants to throw away hard earned cash.

My bother (who is a keen puter) is very interested with this forum. But when he gets to read the last two posts he might feel a little STRANGE too. I know I'm new at this, but does one have to respond to a post the very same day.....the horse bolted

Once again thankyou one and all
Cheers Claire

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-02-14 03:59 ]

Hi Claire

I was not having a go at you, it was just an observation, and no you do not have to reply on the same day. Anyway my comment was made six days after your original post.

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Puntz

I am afraid you have completely lost me with your name changing thing and putting up IP addresses. I can not see what this has to do with anything I have posted ????

Dolus

Hi cj_bear
Just dropped in so I am a bit late with this response.

Some time ago I put in a post from the perspective of someone who has been writing racing programs for a few years. I don't know what happened to it but it seems to have been removed.

Anyway here is a copy of the post. You may find it interesting.

Cheers
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I often read posts from members enquiring if a particular computer racing program is any good or alerting punters to dubious programs.

I have been writing racing programs for several years during which time I have spoken with many punters who have told me how they were conned into buying one program or another which, to their disappointment and considerable loss, turned out to be a complete dud.

To new punters in particular the computer racing program tends to be a bit of an enigma. Can it actually pick winners and make money for the user? If so, why is the program being offered for sale? Here is a brief description of a basic racing program and a few pointers which hopefully will help save a first time buyer paying out thousands of dollars for some hyped up system that is full of promises and short on delivery.

The most common types of racing programs and the ones referred to here are those that use real time race prices. This type of program normally consists of three basic modules -

1. A module that collects real time race prices. Prices may be taken off the internet, teletext, a datacast service like Ch's 7 Bettordata or simply typed in by the user. A program that relies on teletext or datacast will require a decoder, the price of which has to be added to the basic program cost.
2. A module to select runners and calculate bets. This is the all important module that does the selecting of runner(s) and is often the mysterious part of the program to some punters. A few program suppliers will not even tell you how their program selects runners - be wary if you strike this.
3. Finally a module to transfer the bets to the betting agency. This may be via the internet, direct on-line betting or simply left to the user to phone in the bets.

The most common bet calculating method found in a program is dutching, whereby multiple runners in a race are selected to carry bets. If one of the group wins, a profit is returned to the punter. You would use this on win prices and sometimes, if you are feeling lucky, on big paying place prices. Bets can be calculated to return a user predetermined target profit or a total bet amount.

A program will let the user select runners and/or provide a 'system' that makes the selections for you. Remember here that we are dealing with a type of program that relies on real time race prices for selecting runners, so there is not too much mystery as to what it can do. By far the most common 'system' of picking potential winners is to select those runners that undergo large drops in price - shortening. Price differences may be monitored over a period of several minutes or for a sudden negative swing. There has always been a propensity by some punters to watch for that last moment price drop just before the close of bets. The theory being that if there is a significant shortening in any runner price then there must be some punter who has privileged information, so take advantage of that persons knowledge. One technique is to monitor the prices from different TAB's to coordinate price changes or identify any substantial amount placed on a runner at any one TAB. A program may use a database of information for support. Some programs concentrate on the exotics using probability formula to calculate bet amounts for sets of trifectas, quinellas or exactas. There is probably a whole range of 'systems' for a potential buyer to choose from but they usually follow the same theme - they relate back to price fluctuations and/or market favourites.

Unfortunately the price of programs is no sure indication as to whether one program is better than any other in helping the punter to make a profit. A $5000 program may not be any more useful than a $300 program. In fact I have seen two programs that do exactly the same thing and produce the same results with a price tag difference of over $7000.

You cannot purchase a computer racing program that will select runners and consistently make a profit for you. A program may pick winners but it will also pick losers so that short term gains are forfeited to long term losses. It is up to you, the program user, the punter, to make the profits by picking the right selection(s).

If you intend to buy a racing program be careful of those glossy brochures with their inviting balance sheets, be circumspect about "Investment program", "high returns" or "high strike rate".

Be objective when looking at a program, if possible test run the program yourself, don't rely on the salesman's description of how good it is. Try it with a few races. Do you think you can make a profit using the program? The emphasis is on YOU. If you can make a profit with it how long will it take to win back the price of the program? After all you do not begin making a profit until the program has been paid for.

Be very wary about any program that locks you into their 'system' selections and an unchangeable amount of bet, it is very easy for losses to escalate out of control with bad selections. Make sure you can change the selections if need be and set your own level of bet.

Hi Dolus....yes is easy to misunderstand print sometimes, np and ty

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Hi Debug

Very interesting reading, ta for that....Was not sure if I could name the particular program in this forum.. of the ppl that have been chasing my partner for over 6mths with their get rich schemes

Cheers cj_bear

DeBug,

TOP POST which just about explains all the crap that is being spruked around.

What I can't understand with all these programs is why they are needed.

I basically bet from odds with a little bit of form thrown in.

If there is a race I am interested in I watch the odds from 4 different sites, 2 tabs and two betting agencies.

90% of my selections are the ones that BLOW in the market from opening price.

You can check as many years of data as you like and I guarantee that MORE horses win that blow than the ones that are backed in.

I always bet at the last minute and if there an announcement on sky that a horse is being heavily backed and it is my selection I DONT bet.

I'm not saying none of them salute but I have saved more money than I would have won by using this approach.

Again a very good post I just hope the newbies out there take heed.

One of the factors not realized by those who try to watch price fluctuations as means of determining who is betting on what, is the prices come from someone else doing the form, making a calculated bet, and there you have part of the market's "reflection".
Now let's say everyone tried to follow prices, but no one did actual form. The whole structre of the market would be baseless. Mostly based on speculation.
If "Aunt Nelly" fancied a bet on pension day and told her cuz, "what a wonderfull day it is to put a bet on, life is too short so better hurry", and they all went down to the TAB, placed their bets then told the entire bowling club, "the sun is shining put a bet on", BUT not one had done any form, then is that how one of those "follow the money system" work ? based on speculation ?
And who's speculation I might add?
It comes down to form, and if your form type selection prove a hit, then yeah, maybe follow the money to confirm one way or the other many have a similar opinion on your form/rated selections to !
Yet again, who's opinion are you going to back ?
Yours, or "Aunt Nelly's hubby by the way watching SKY channel tipsters draw the late money in like sheep to the slaughter ?

The late money system was ok when it was first come about, but soon after the idea gained popularity, many thought it was the "short-cut" to TAB riches...I don't think it has much merit these days on a grand scale...Just watch the prices tumble, and then even more on your returns when one of these systems are tried.
Finaly, a spreadhseet is all it takes to see the basics of how this calculation is done.
If a price is 10.00 @ "time X" and 7.50 @ "time Y", go figure...
Nup...
But if you done some form, rated your form selections and "see" your own selection go from 10.00 to 7.50..then you have the edge. Not the other way round...loses in the long run.

Hi Claire,

A quick and easy answer from me....NO WAY!!!

No way should anybody even contemplate parting with that kind of money for any kind of betting program!!!