topsy99,

Do you find that:

a) The time since a LR win or placing affects the system?

b)The number of LR wins or placings affects the system?

I would imagine that your longshots come from LR horses which haven't won for quite some time, but what about the strike rate?

I'll understand if you do not wish to divulge this info.

no problems discussing.
i dont think interpretations of any system makes a lot of difference to anyone else.
due to the fact we could all look at a 10 horse race and come up with 8 different winners due to our selection processes.

back to the question.

i have published on here a study i did over a 16 month period from newpaper results (manually) till i got sick of doing it.

they were. of about 1200 prequalified listed horses that won races over the period, yes there are a lot of winners but then again a lot of starters.

33% had qualified in the past 8 weeks prior to them winning.
80% had qualified in the previous 12 months 95% 24 months only 5% of them were longer than two years since qualifying.
which emphasises that current form is good form.
longshots come from anywhere - recently we were discussing dedicated miss paying $48 it qualified last start(previous).
i recall luther winning in sydney a couple of years ago he had qualified the start before (started 80/1).
when toledo won the manikato it had qualified two starts previously.
piavonic beat sunline at 45/1 after qualifying at group 2 previous start (leap of faith)
i know people will say i am being selective in quoting the above so i shouldnt do it.
on saturday ski the tide our fabio and fires of ireland all qualified last start using the higher prizemoney theory.
i had qualified them and backed them.
i guess to answer your question most recent qualifiers is a good term to use and have some faith.
in ascot on saturday spirit lady qualified two starts previously and won at 12/1.