Hey!

In my experience I have found that ten pin pricks out of a ten horse race doesn't produce a winner. Is that confusing its not for me. I do it every weekend and all I get is losers. It's easy.
I'll get you a little hint go from the bottom up or do you go from the top down (damn I just confused myself) ah well there's always next week.
Lots of luck mate.

_________________
Special knowledge is not a talent. One must acquire it by hard work.

[ This Message was edited by: Tatouche on 2004-03-28 08:14 ]

A valid question Inny, but a difficult one as well. I use the once, twice, three time's your out at this ball-game.

A bit over-raced perhaps? More than 40 starts for a 4 year old. 50 for a 5 year old? Etc. Give 'em a break. Strike 1.

Outclassed? Earnt an average of less than 10% of the highest earner in the field. Strike 2.

Won less than 20% AND placed lass than 40%? Strike 3.

Had more than 5 tries at the course AND 5 tries at the distance and still trying? Strike 4.

Had more starts on slow and heavy tracks than good ones? Strike 5.

Have a Sportsman's Zip below 50 AND a Techform below 80? Strike 6.

Won't find many winners from these ranks.

But, as they say in the classics. Sh** happens.

Doomben Race 1 27/03/2004. Sha Alma saluted.

My study only goes back a few months. This is the only winner that I've found from these ranks. C'mon you guys with databases and computers. I'm sure than Inny, myself and many other users would appreciate your input. We're all on the same side, and I hope this input proves valuable to those that read it.

Successful punting,

Bazza

Paddy! mmmmm! I never thought of that, yes...... mad as a hatter!!!!

CRASH, unfortunately with the loss of Field Commander I am into that 75% + catagory so maybe you will not be interested in next weeks selections hahahahh!

But at least I can lament on Bohol and Leyte!!!! That'll throw a few off the scent!!!

If you want to pick losers, just back favourites in maidens and favourites first up from a spell - in general their strike rate is awful.

Or, go to the pub, get legless and follow the mob or back those 'whispered' certainties !!!

Only suggestion is to back debut maidens who are severe better drifters. May mean the stable and owners have little confidence due to lack of form on the training circuit. I generally lay when they reach 150% of their opening quote.

Cheers ED

so we cant pick winners with any degree of certainty and we cant pick losers with any degree of certainty.
i can pick about 75% of losers but i dont know out of 100 which 25% the winners will be .
else i would be hitting harder.


isnt that the fun of the game.

Hi Inny,

I have kept a database for several years and I have found that a Pareto principle applies for approximately 80% of race winners. These are the three statistics that drive the principle:

1. Rated within 4 points of the Top rated Zipform (Sportsman) horse:
2. Top 6 in Pre Post Odds (Friday paper);
3. Finished in the first 5 last start.

A word of caution, these rules apply to race fields of more than 8 starters, no 2YO, maidens, steeples or hurdles and Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Saturday metro only.

Hope you find this of help.


Luckyboy

I've said it before....leave out those that open longer than their newspaper price.
Last Saturday, Syd, Melb, Bris, 151 runners fit into this category...only 3 of them won.

Mark,

Can I ask what source you are using for pre-post prices?


Luckyboy