The odds are real, but it's what we call a "morning line". We don't have (legal) bookmakers, our final odds are determined by the parimutual pool and it's distribution for each horse. The track and the government also scape a percentage of the "handle". the In last 25 years, the Kentucky Derby has almost always been won by a longshot, a horse better than 10-1 and usually from off the pace, (closer) too. Ofttimes very large odds. Favorites seem to fare very poorly in the Derby. I predict Smarty will be at 5-1 or less when the gate (barrier) opens. The 1 1/4 miles is further than most if not all of these horses have ever run, so distance ability is important. Unfortunately, we have bred for speed, not stamina in recent years, and Inbred good blood too much, so our horses are still fragile at 3 years old. Hope I have answered all the questions, ask whatever you like. I personally don't think Smarty Jones will even be in the minors. None of my U.S. cronies like him either. The old gent that taught me to handicap says Borrego is the best play for the money. I like Lion Heart, The Cliff's Edge and Borrego. I will box all the top Beyer figures in the exactas and trifectas, because that has cashed every recent year, usually gloriously. The Beyer figs are the numbers in the middle of the form. They rate a horse as to speed and ability, even adjusted for track and surface. They work very well, when used with the proper interpretations. There are special 3 year old factors, which make us think that Smarty Jones will "bounce". I know how to make them, and could get filthy rich punting with them in Australia. Too bad I'm too ************ old to emigrate, according to your law. (over 45) haha.

Regards, Glenn


[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-23 07:34 ]

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-23 07:36 ]

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-23 07:38 ]

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-23 07:51 ]

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-23 08:09 ]

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-23 08:12 ]

Thanks Glenn some very interesting reading :wink:

__________________
Ta me go maith

Its alright glenn you can teach us and make us all filthy rich.

I like EDDINGTON each way

Cheers ED

Read the Footnotes
Master David
Borrego
Smarty Jones

Read The Footnotes is my 4th pick, although one should realize that no freshened (days out) horse has won this race in 48 years. A bit early there isn't it? It's 12:20 Friday here, putting you at about 2 AM?

Regards,

Glenn

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-24 03:34 ]

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-24 03:35 ]

The KD prep races are a very important factor in picking a Kentucky Derby winner. Most winners had a top 3 finish in one of the major prep races, those being, The Santa Anita Derby, The Wood Memorial, The Blue Grass and The Arkansas Derby. The Blue Grass has produced the most KD winners.

Regards,

Glenn


[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-24 15:45 ]

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-24 15:45 ]

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-24 15:46 ]

Action This Day, and Preachinatthebar are scratched.

Glenn

_________________
"Absolutely nothing is absolutely free"

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-24 15:52 ]

Crikey Glenn...got the pre stats exams shivers (all over again) after reading the KD field details and info...LOL!

Personally, have never seen the Derby race but it looks a thriller...is it popular all around the States (eg Melbourne Cup)?

Like Master David
The Cliffs Edge
Lion Heart

Good luck one and all!

I have to keep changing the link to get better copies of the racing form. Yes, The Kentucky Derby is the race of races here. The others even with higher purses pale in comparison. This is THE race in the U.S., coast to coast, all 50 states, and said to be the most highly wagered race in the world. (though I wonder about that, what with that Aussie high roller putting millions on Lonhro)

Regards,

Glenn
_________________
"Absolutely nothing is absolutely free"

[ This Message was edited by: TheAvenger on 2004-04-25 08:53 ]

Lion Heart
Master David
Smarty Jones
The Cliff's Edge
Read the Footnotes

Geez we could probably put the whole field in there as well.. lol