Party,

Sounds like you are stuck in the dreaded 50% chance [overall odds] you win/loose scenario.

Your goal is simply to increase your odds/chances [ for all of us, simple to see but not so simple to do ! ] to get out of the 'treading water' rut.

If I remember correctly, you bet place only [?]. Try checking your records to see if you would improve your balance sheet by betting for a win instead. That alone will improve your odds [ it has to, considering place on average, pays 1/4 win price and not 1/3rd ].

Fear of win betting is in the mind and not the maths.

If you play a system[s], examine your filters for areas of possible improvement or even consider handicapping it's selections as THE final filter [would improve all systems]... 'Rule no.X : Reason'

Stuffing around with when to stop/start with bets is just that, stuffing around at the edges of the problem to avoid tackling possible ingrained betting prejudices and habits [ handicaps ].

Horses don't know when to stop/start winning and certainly don't know when YOU are betting on them.

Improving your odds/chances is the only way to win in this game and soundly based [ not from la la land ] reasoning is called for.

Anything a punter does to achieve improvement, must make sense mathematically and stand it's scrutiny [ not the pathetic scrutiny of wishful thinking/reasoning ] otherwise we won't proceed forward an inch long term.

Finally, believing in ourselves as winners is important strategy too. Even if life has knocked the stuffing out of us, left us shredded and has us convinced we are losers.

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-05-31 09:05 ]

CRASH.Couldn,t agree more.
Cheers.
darky.

Crash, My main betting is place only level stakes but "this" is another plan which is win bets only, whilst I agree in principle with your comments, and I have tried many combinations including "rule x", but it usually cuts out the bigger priced winners that pop up now and then which keeps the averages worthwhile eg. Big Dam on Saturday.
I suppose I have this "lotto ticket" mentality that I like to be there with a chance of a "biggy" i.e. My idea with target betting using a fixed maximum bank is to then double the target when the bank doubles etc etc with an ultimate goal in mind, this just keeps me interested.

PS. Just for interest I checked back and in 145 Saturdays there has not been one with none of the 6 placed (SO FAR) now thats tempting fate, comes back to the old one "pick em to win back em to place??? maybe the beginnings of a new system there????

I must admit that I buy my ratings (almost like confessing to paying for sex).

However, these ratings and the way I was told to use them give between 3 and 4 winners for every meeting. They're not cheap, but nothing good ever is :smile:

So, there are no long runs of outs and by playing on the basis of:-

Race Target = Daily Target/(No. of mtgs -1)

and betting progressively I hit my target ($100 per day) over 90% of the time over the past year.

Target Betting isn't quite the bugbear that many make it out to be .... it's all about Strike Rate.

Since when was sex ever free Thoroughbred ?

Party,

You were complaining about being stuck in the same spot ???

My suggestions were only that, but you seem to be happy about the way you do things, even to the point of defending your approach and I'm not knocking it.

However, same methods but a different result please makes no sense to me.

I think you brought up this dilemma once before and it is being revisited.

Cheers.

Darky, yes might do a dry run with Power 10.

Thoroughbred, Sounds like an excellent ratings service you've got there, is that SR or MR?, when yousay 3-4 winners per meting I presume you are backing more than one horse per race??

Crash, I like the way you analyse things, very clear and precise, I'm a bit more muddled I'm afraid. But your posts always make me think.
And yes I do tend to repeat things in my old age.

PS. I worked on the gas pipe line from Sale to Hastings in 1969/70 would've passed through your country wouldn't I? Stayed in Trafalgar and Moe amongst other places.

[ This Message was edited by: partypooper on 2004-06-01 12:11 ]

Well Party at least you are mostly breaking even and that puts you well ahead of most of the mob.

I would avoid all progressions if you wish to stay that way.

Perhaps a small fiddle around the edges of how you do things would be OK and not too painful to do.

Check over your books [and I'm assuming you keep records] and look what your results would have been by taking out the 'tattslotto' aspects [the heavy tracks, 1000m races, 2yr. olds and big odds bets etc.] one at a time or in various combinations and look at what your results would have been.

You might give yourself a lead [perhaps even a pleasant surprise] there.

Cheers and good luck.

PS. Pity the gas never got to Paynesville !

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-06-01 16:28 ]