I've been messing with the place bet too. Winners paying between $2 and $4 [or even $5] often pay up to 50% of the win price on the TAB. The spring carnival is a great example of unusually high place prices. Check em' out.

Sometimes we have to if the old way is not working.

Cheers.
darky.

would certainly be a major change to accommodate the likes of Brom Felinity.
I could understand it being someone's selection.
Hard to come at it being a rating.

Now Now Now

cynacism does not suit you... the ratings file is still available for dload if you don't believe what I am saying... U do your ratings your way I do them mine...

The horse had 3 starts.. in the money twice.. (now 4 for 3) . 1 go at the distance... Now 2/2 and in the money...

In that race there were a few horses that had finished in the placings last start.. I would have thought that would be just something normal, to include in any ratings... There were only 2 last start winners... Vintner which started at the tight odds of 66/1 and Talons Shown which started at 15/4F. Brom Felnity started at 15/4 at it's last start and ran 2nd .. Pin up the fav (also the horse I had on top) for the race started at 9/1 last start after finishing close up 2nd in similar company.. Irongail ran 3rd at its last effort at 14/1 in a listed.. this is the same horse that could not catch Careal Boy at Wyong in listed company... Charmed Lady ran 2nd at its last go at 9/1.. Kingston Bird ran 2nd at 9/1 in a restricted race.. The winner, Umber's form was far from impressive finshing 5 lengths from the winner in an open on Cup day at 12/1 at it's last outing...

As you can see 2 of the three place getters ran a hole last start.. Kingston Bird paid better than 4$ and Brom Felinity 21$ As I said L/S finishing position figures in a lot of ratings.. I think Brom Felinty was the horse on the UP, whilst a lot of the others have either reached their potential or were on the way down

I have mentioned in other threads that Last few SP's and beaten lengths plus a few others are components of my ratings ( i am not going to give you the recipe).. I have also said that the weakness or maybe it is the strength ( you cant argue with 21$ the place, 2nd rater) of my ratings is that It does not take class rises/falls into account.. I do not subscirbe to the rule that horses should race in their own classes or lower... The horse doesnt know what class it should be in.. it just goes out an runs, whether it is 1/1 or 100/1... It just runs

Listed company is not that exalted I am afraid, call it GR4 if you like.. and the winner of the race was nothing flash, it's formlines suggested that..

I hope u have better understanding of how my ratings can throw a horse like that up from time to time..

One thing I forgot when I first posted this.. was that the race we are talking about was a race restricted to mares...

If you are not being cynical... I apologise for making that assertion, but that is the way that I read you post

__________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com

Yes, I was being cynical.
Incidentally, my selection (not rating) in this race was Umber. I note that you refer to Umber's recent form as uninspiring.
Consider this: 6/15 beaten 6L behind Matras Caul. mares hcp. carrying 57.5kg
6/11 btn. 4L. G2 hcp. Moonee Valley behind Niconero.
8/14 btn. 5L behind Candy Vale , Flem. mares hcp. 56kg.
Compare this formline to a horse that placed in a C2 hcp. at kyneton carrying 53 kg and I think you would have to reassess your opinion.
Of course opininon has nothing to do with ratings based on a mechanical formula and I understand that.
With due respect I think that Brom Felinity's placing was a fluker's event without any particular relevance to ratings.
Brom Felinity could well go on to be a very good horse.

Well done for finding Umber ( 42 starts 3 Wins) You sure looked hard... That figure alone puts a red line thru it for mine... but hey... each to their own

No I would not be inclined to change my opinion based on those numbers.. The horse which you appear to be looking down at, was on the UP in my opinion.. It was untried in that sort of race so figured well... It has done nothing wrong so far, so no convictions.. can't say the same for the winner

I will take the 'flukers event' at better than 20/1 the place anytime, particularly when I have given it a chance in the race..

I hope u had a stack on Umber .. good 4 you.. but why question what I did? I am not questioning your method...

__________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com

I don't bet in stacks X.
My other winner for the day was Cayambe, recent form, 7-4-5-12.
Just missed with Drumbeater around $12-80 for the win.
Did you have Zigotto rated near the top.? paid $7-60 for the place. Recent form, 1,1,2.

Actually, had zigotto on top... I thought I was home on that one

__________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com

XPT,

I've always been very impressed with your ability to churn out useful ratings. I wonder if you can have a little look at the below [aus] link about ratings and see what you make of it. By Nick Albury member of Ausrace forum. He's not selling anything [except 2nix bet monitor on another link]. His rating ideas seem astute but I'm not sure if I can get this old head around how he works out his initial ratings that he lines up. You might.

http://www.twonix.com/twonix/library/Ratings_Odds_1.PDF

Hope you find it as interesting as I did.

Cheers.

Gday Crash

Just got back from work so I will have a looksee and let you know what I reckon

__________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com