Moe, we're pretty close on 4.

I have:
St K by 15
Kang by 24
Frem by 19
Port by 37

The bookies agree with us for the above games.

I think Geelong will more more comfortably, that adelaide will push brissie a bit harder. I also have WB covering with the +20.5 on offer. Richmond +37.5 for me.

Yep, this week 3/4 are dogs. The other games my system leaned towards the faves, but the lines weren't nearly enough value to bet.

Well I knocked your Tiger tips twice for a 1 standing of one-all.
I looked at Goldmember's summary and couldn't believe that the Tigers look a chance of winning this game.
Sometimes you just have to throw the numbers in the wheelie bin.I don't know why it is that long odds-on horses run unplaced.But they do.Could be things unaccountable like upset tummy or headache or anger or lack of sleep.
This is when the vibe sorts things out.You just know that Richmond aren't going to get close to the Demons.Well you don't,but I do.

VIBE TIPS
St.Kilda 6
Kangaroos 36
Fremantle 19
Collingwood 36
Port Power 35
Geelong 30
Melbourne 45
Brisbane 26

Moe, I'm not disagreeing with you here. Richmond may very well may get slaughtered, and I could lose on them yet again.

Not betting in that game, but all things being equal melb should cover the start, but will they take it easy as the lions have done in a few games lately ?

Going to tip 2 upsets this week, western bulldogs and carlton

Tweaked my system for AFL (not in the way you think Moe, haven't taken out worst teams yet). Now hits 59.9% against the spread from '02-'04, 15.88%POT against an average price of 1.91. With line shopping that's 18.68% POT :wink:

Anyway for today I have:
Port -37.5, system says easy win.
Geelong -23.5, system says easy win.
Richmond +38, system says too much, even for richmond.

Thanks Mr J, sounds like a nice little flutter for the today.

__________________
Ta me go maith

Well Richmond making me pay again...how could a team be so bad as to lose 1-5 against the spread?

Bottom 4 teams are no bets for me from here on, or at least until I so some testing which shows they are profitable longterm.

Gee I love being right.
I got 3 out of 4 this week Mr J.
Fell over and broke my neck when I suggested Adelaide could get close to the Lions.
I don't know whether you follow the animals,but they have an intangible thing called CLASS.
I think that Footy teams may also have something similar.Like the Brisbane Lions.No other teams seem to have it at the minute,but quite a number seem to have it's opposite.
I think I will be giving Brisbane a 9 point bonus for being Brisbane and a 9 point penalty for Hawthorn,Western Bulldogs and Richmond for being who they are.
Winners keep on winning and losers keep on losing.

"Winners keep on winning and losers keep on losing."

You couldn't be more wrong there. I'm not talking about winning anyway, I'm talking about covering the spread. Big difference.